The Election Line
With one day left in the campaign, the national Pollster numbers show Barack Obama leading John McCain 51.5% to 44.3%, with 4.2% of the votes going to other candidates or still undecided. Their electoral college prediction is 311 votes for Obama, 142 votes for McCain, and 85 votes too close to call. These are the best predictions available in the US, but many people wonder how accurate they really are. For example, what if the people polled weren't telling the truth?
There is a better way to predict elections than polling the voting population: ask the gamblers. Rather than dealing in hypothetical what-if's, the gambling world deals in dollars and cents. Every potential fraud or screwup has to be taken into account when your livelihood depends on correctly predicting the outcome. A pollster can say "Ooops!" and move on, but a bookie who sets the wrong odds literally loses his shirt. Gambling on election outcomes is illegal in America, but perfectly acceptable in many parts of the world. Two sites, Intrade and Betfair, won't let Americans place bets, but do publish their election odds lines. With only one day left to go, their numbers are likely to be very accurate. If not, they face going out of business the day after tomorrow.
This morning Betfair has Barack Obama at approximately 91% to win and John McCain at 8%, with the odds of Obama receiving more than 350 electoral votes at 59%. Those are overwhelming odds this late in the game. Their prediction model has Obama winning the following battleground states: Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Over at the Intrade site they put the electoral college numbers front and center: 353 for Obama, 185 for McCain. Their model has Obama picking up the same swing states, plus Nevada. Here's the bottom line: tomorrow night the newsboy bobbleheads are going to be talking about an Obama presidency, you can bet on it.