Talking Points Memo (TPM) combines 6 daily tracking polls and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, derives a TPM Tracker Composite score. I decided to plot TPM's composite against the major campaign events. The graph contains the TPM Tracker over the past 6 weeks and the major events that transpired over that time. Please note the black line running through the data points are trend lines.
Using the trend lines, Obama's support increased from 48.4% to about 51.5% over the six weeks while McCain's support dropped from 43.8% to about 43.2%. IMO, a correlation could be drawn between the shifts in the the daily tracking polls and major campaign events.
The first major events (reflected in the first blue panel) in this time span that moved the daily tracking scores were the trio of 1) McCain's 'campaign suspension, 2) the first debate and 3) the slow release of the Couric-Palin interview. Obama's numbers jump from 47.5% to 49.9% a 1.4% increase. At the same time, McCain dropped from 45.5% to 43.5%.
The second major event is the VP debate. Obama's numbers rose from 49.5% to 50.5%. McCain suffered a fall of about 1% point.
The third event is the second debate. Obama's numbers improved about 0.5% point. McCain's remained unchanged. There doesn't seem to be any effect for Obama from the third debate. McCain seems to have gained briefly after the debate.
The event that created the greatest single effect, so far, came after the Powell endorsement. Obama gained about 1.5% points. The effect lasted about 6 days.
Obama's infomercial increased Obama's numbers by 1.5%. Obama began a 1.5% point drop 4 days prior to the infomercial, as the glow of the Powell endorsement faded. Simultaneously, McCain began a steep upward climb that was abruptly stopped by the infomercial.
The acute effects of all these events lasted approximately 5-6 days and in many cases begin a day before the event (probably a result of the pre-event hype). IMO, the infomercial was timed to reverse an anticipated dip in his polls numbers and, if past is prologue, to allow the effect to peak on election day.
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