I'm insanely anxious about tomorrow, just like the rest of you. So to calm myself down I've decided to write a diary about what I think will happen. Since existence is naturalistic, there is no reason to turn superstitious and to presume that this analysis will jinx anything. If you are superstitious and becoming borderline traumatic about this election, you probably should not read this diary! My message to myself and to you all is the following: try to relax.
Here's my prognostication:
The basic presumption guiding these estimations is that history will remember the 2008 United States general election as one of realignment, when the country shifted left after about three decades of right-wing political preponderance.
Obama will win the popular vote 54% to 45%, a margin of nine percent, with the other one percent splitting mostly between Barr and Nader. The national polls are the most decisive factor driving my guess here, but I also think that those polls are underestimating Obama’s support a little bit. The RCP and Pollster averages each have Obama slightly over 51%, but a huge turnout should see Obama through to a big victory. Additionally, I think pundits are overstating McCain’s support among undecided voters.
Obama will win the Electoral College 338 to 200 votes, a margin of 138 votes. Under this tally, I assume that Obama will triumph in the following 2004 red states: New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, and Florida. I sincerely doubt McCain will snatch any blue states away, but I do believe he will hold Missouri, North Carolina, and Indiana. These latter three have contracted in McCain’s favor recently, and they are probably beyond Obama’s reach.
The Democrats will reach 57 or 58 seats in the Senate, two or three short of 60. The Southern races are done for, I’m afraid, but we should triumph in Alaska, Oregon, Minnesota, and North Carolina, to mention just a few very competitive races.
The Democrats will surpass 260 seats in the House. If my fundamental assumption of a realigning election holds, then the Democrats will sweep scores of close races.
Proposition 8 in California will go down to defeat by 52% to 48%. Some poll results in mid-October worried me deeply, but the last few polls in the past two weeks have favored the no forces. Granted, it’s very difficult to poll issues like these, but I think pollsters have improved their methodologies considerably. I am moderately confident that Proposition 8 will fail tomorrow. My heart will be broken if I’m wrong.
So anyway, those are my predictions. Got any guts to share yours? Come on...don’t tell me you’re superstitious!