I did this as a class project but here it is for the Dkos to criticize and debate. These are the 5 election night scenarios I have come up with. Much credit goes to Nate Silver and his wonderful machines of calculation for helping me with this. Also to the LA times for the vote maps to embed.
Here are the 5 scenarios with a brief analysis (non professional of course) for why and what it takes to reach them. We have an Obama Super Surge, The Obama Surge, Hi-Ball Conventional Wisdom, Low Ball Conventional Wisdom, and for sake of argument, the McCain Squeaker victory scenario.
High-Ball Conventional Wisdom:
Here Obama does the ceiling of what many of the pundits and odds makers predict. Strong turnout for obama means close victories in Ohio, Florida, and North Carolina, but sweeping elsewhere. McCain makes late game comebacks to help keep Indiana and Missouri in line.
Low Ball Conventional Wisdom:
This seems to be what most conservatives pundits hope for, an Obama win (and a decent one) but no landslide, but I'll let you all debate what is and is not a land slide. Here the undecided break hard for McCain pushing FL and NC into his column.
And now the more out side the box scenarios.
Obama Surge:
This model supposes the polls are to conservative and count out many Obama supporters (blacks, youth, new voters) who will have massive turn out. Undecideds can still break for McCain (but barely) or tie for this model to happen. This would be a Major Land Slide and representative of a 10 point victory. I personally place my bets on this model, I been saying to friends for years how Obama will over preform the polling. (In confession though my Dkos prediction page gave the High Ball CW)
The McCain Squeaker Win:
For this to happen, every poll must be fundamentally fallible (all of them), and undecided will need to break hard for McCain (something like 80-90%). All that said this is an insane long shot but included because its not over till fat ladies are singing. PA is a must win, along with a sweep of every swing state. Here NV and VA are interchangeable. With reports of McCain's faltering GOTV, millions of new and minority voters, and the sheer energy for Obama (oh and all that statistical stuff) this senario is the least likely of the five.
The Obama SUPER SURGE:
Don't we all wish this were possible. This is the democratic reverse of the Regan 80 landslide. I think for this to happen, there has to be tremendously poor polling in several red states, a hard break of undecideds toward Obama, and massive McCain voter depression driving them away from the polls. Though this is to me as unlikely as a McCain victory, surprise landslides happen and quick. And Sorry, don't see WV ever going blue under any circumstances this year. GA and AZ would need to be the sleepers that we all hope they are, but if Obama breaks 400 (he's got his 2012 election sewn up).
Well now, shoot back some ideas, counter scenarios, go wild. Its election day, what else are you gonna do to not have the anticipation kill you. Oh and take the poll.