By Jwilkes from The Real Right:
my predictions for tonighht
Well, folks, it’s time to put up or shut up. Without further ado, I submit for your approval my prediction fortonight’s action.
The Senate:
From the start, the Senate has offered an enormous opportunity for Democrats to bolster their influence on Capitol Hill. Nevada Senator John Ensign said back in 2007 that if Republicans could hold their losses to five seats or less, he’d consider that a strong performance given the circumstances. But on the eve of the election, you can bet that Ensign is kicking himself. His party is looking to lose a bare minimum of seven seats: Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and North Carolina. A few of those were foreseeable, but some- like red-state regulars Alaska and North Carolina- seem to add insult to injury.
As much as I’d like to say otherwise, Democrats are highly unlikely to pick up enough seats to end up with a fillibuster-proof majority. For a split-second, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky looked as though he might be vulnerable. But since then, the polls have stabilized, and McConnell is up by six points (and consider that John McCain is being given zero chance to win in states where he trails by less of a deficit). Similarly, Mississippi looked like it might end up a nail-biter. And if Democratic former Governor Ronnie Musgrove had been able to maintain a smaller margin, there is a chance that newly registered voters might have put him over the type. But again, the balance of polls has tipped back in favor of the GOP, who now lead by more than 9. Georgia is the same as the other two.
The only unpredictable state is Minnesota. The lead has bounced back and forth like a ping-pong ball, and polling has been volatile, showing an 8-point Al Franken lead one day, only to show a 4-point Norm Coleman lead the next. This race could really go either way. But considering the tightening of polls nationwide, the edge would have to go to Coleman.
The X-factor is Joe Lieberman. Will he continue to caucus with Democrats? Already, some in the party are vowing to strip him of his Chairmanship to punish him for his open support of the GOP presidential candidate. The Republicans are already courting him heavily. And while Democrats might be eager for a little vengeance, they might want to tread lightly. After all, losing Lieberman would negate one of the gains they made in the election (and let’s face it, they spent a lot of money to win those races). In that case Republicans would only have lost 6 seats...and Ensign won’t have been that far off.
The House:
Without getting into too much detail, Democrats will win somewhere between 15 and 25 seats in the House. Even the most optimistic GOP strategist couldn’t put his party’s prospects at better than a net loss of 15 seats. As of right now, 8 Republican-held seats are leaning Democrat, while 3 Democrat-held seats are leaning Republican. That’s brings you to D+5. Now, there are 21 tossup states with Republican incumbents. If Democrats managed to take just under half of those, they’d end up with 15 in total. But in reality this is a Democratic year. What’s more likely is that Democrats take about ¾ of them, leaving them with an approximate gain of 20 seats. That will give them a devastatingly powerful margin for the 111th Congress.
The Presidency:
After two years of intense campaigning, public speaking, and punditry, we’re just about 36 hours away from knowing who the 44th President of the United States will be. And to round out my predictions, it gives me great pleasure to forecast that the country will elect its first African American commander in chief in its long and storied history.
McCain is simply too far behind. If you only count the states in which Barack Obama hold a RealClearPolitics polling average of 5 points or more, Obama has 278 electoral votes already in the bank. He’s leading - albeit narrowly - in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. He’s competitive in North Carolina, Missouri, and Indiana. Keep in mind, he can lose all of those states and still win the White House. But chances are, he’ll pick up at least one or two of them.
I’d like to say that the GOP needs an inside straight to pull off any semblance of victory in this election. But truthfully, there isn’t a hand in cards that even comes close to the statistical quagmire facing Republicans now.
It’s a Democratic year.