Now that we're heading into a runoff in GA, here are the questions that come to mind:
- Conventional wisdom would give the advantage to Chambliss, since he came so close to 50%. What's more, the balance of the vote went to Libertarian candidate Buckley. Libertarians tend to lean R. Is this an accurate assumption in GA?
- Martin just underperformed Obama in GA (Obama 1,811,198 - Martin 1,727,626), but mostly, we have to imagine that their votes overlapped. Martin's success in forcing a runoff was surely given a huge boost by high Dem turnout for Obama. How can we keep the turnout as high on Dec. 2 as it was on election day? How much of the Obama organization can be kept mobilized for the next month? Will Obama campaign in GA for Martin? Should he? Will the campaign be able to help with other resources, such as voter lists, offices, etc.?
- I have to imagine that the turnout for a Senate runoff will be smaller than for election day in a Presidential year. Is this historically true? If so, seems to me we can make up the three-odd percent on turnout.
Someone talk me down, or up...