The graph below shows the number of challenges by each candidate relative to how they are performing in a given precinct. The dots represent challenges; a dot to the north of the x-axis represents a precinct that the candidate is currently winning. A dot to the south shows the number of challenges in a precinct that each candidate is currently losing. There are no negative challenges.
The next graph shows each candidate's challenge regression on the same graph:
If you add up the number of challenges in each precinct, using the same positive/negative association used above, you get the results below:
Challenges:
Franken: +619
Coleman: +63
Net Franken: 556
While Franken is certainly not challenging more total ballots, it does appear as though 60% of Franken's challenges occur in precincts he is currently winning. Only 50.8% of Coleman's challenges come from precincts Coleman is winning.
If the current data is extrapolated into the remaining precincts the margin for Franken increases:
Franken: +637 (+/- 76)
Coleman: +57 (+/- 65)
Net Franken: 580
We'll find out later tonight after the official SOS result if these numbers mean anything. Franken is releasing 633 of his challenges, and Coleman is doing about the same. If The 580 vote margin holds up it may suggest two things:
(1) Franken is challenging more ballots FOR himself.
(2) Franken is challenging a ton of ballots in precincts where the race is relatively close, and the challenges by Franken, are actually inducing a Franken lead.
Looking at the maps below seem to completely eliminate option 2. Franken is challenging a vast number of ballots in counties won by Coleman, but Franken's challenges have NOT induced an artificial victory change in any county. Coleman is currently winning (by winning I mean he has gained more votes as a result of the recount) in Hennepin and St. Louis Counties.
St. Louis is the huge county in the upper right and Hennepin is the relatively small, but dark blue county, to the left of the Wisconsin border and is fairly close to the border.
Franken initially won both Hennepin and St. Louis by huge margins.
The bottom line:
Franken appears to be challenging a far greater number of ballots FOR him than Coleman. This suggests that Franken will likely add ballots to his count at a greater rate than his challenges will subtract from Coleman.
I'll now attempt to explain the peculiarities of each map and the associated colorization process.
Franken vs Coleman (0%, 1, 3)
The upper left most map of Minnesota depicts the percent margin of victory in each county using the unofficial results of the Minnesota Senate election. All totals pertaining to unlisted candidates are included in our analysis. The color purple represents counties decided by less than 3% of the final margin, decrementing by 1 percent for each change in color. The darkest purple represents a voting margin of 1% or less, the middle purple between 1% and 2% and the lightest purple between 2-3%. The blue and red then represent counties that were decisively won by either Al Franken or Norm Coleman, respectively. The red and blue counties follow a 3% scale. The lightest blue (or red) represents a 3-6% margin, followed by 6-9% as the color grows darker, then finally a 9%+ margin of victory for the darkest blue (or red).
% Ballots Counted (0%, 16.6, 16.6)
The upper right most map illustrates the ratio between the number of recounted votes and the certified vote totals for each county. The counties in gray have yet to begin the recount process. If the percent of recounted votes over certified votes is less than 50%, the county is colored purple; if this ratio is greater than 50% the county is colored with respect to winning candidate, either blue or red. The color gradations take place in 16.6% divisions. The tint, for each color represents the highest range. For purple this range is 33.3-50% segment while the darkest blue (or red) represents the 83.3%-100% division. The color grows lighter as the percentage decreases.
Ballots Challenged (0%, 1, 7)
The bottom left map attempts to illustrate the discrepancy between challenged votes, in each county, by each candidate. The purple counties are divided into single challenge divisions while the partisan colors are separated by seven. The partisan coloring begins after a four challenge offset with blue representing a Franken challenge and red a Coleman challenge. Gray depicts counties with no challenge discrepancy; this may or may not include counties that have yet to begin recounting.
Recounted Vote Gain (0%, 1, 5)
The last image provides the net vote gain, per county based on the difference between the current recount result and the initially certified count. If less than 3 votes have been gained by either candidate in a given county that county will be colored purple in single vote divisions. If a candidate has a net gain of more than 3 votes in any county it will be colored accordingly; blue for Franken, and red for Coleman. The partisan coloring is done in 5 vote increments. Gray again represents counties that have yet to begin their recount process.
Shading explanation:
Franken vs Coleman (0%, 1, 3)
Same as above.
Obama vs McCain (0%, 1, 3)
Instead of depicting the unofficial Senate Results, the upper right most map shows the result of the Presidential Election between Barack Obama and John McCain; the color scales are identical to those used in the first Senate map.
Franken vs Obama (12%, .166, 1.5)
The lower left most map differs from the previous two, but conveys a combination of their data. Based on the current statewide result, Al Franken received 12.07903% less votes than Obama. For the proposes of this graph that number was rounded to 12% and used as a baseline. If Al Franken performed better than that 12% difference in a given county, the county is designated as blue; if Obama did better, the county was colored orange. The purple represents counties where the adjusted margin, after the 12% is applied, lies within .5%. The darkest purple shows counties decided by .166% or less, the middle purple .333% or less, and the lightest purple .5% or less. The blue and orange counties follow a 1.5% scale. The lightest blue (or orange) represents a 1.5-3% adjusted margin, then a 3-4.5% margin for the next darkest color. followed by the darkest blue (or orange) representing a 7%+ adjusted margin of victory for the associated candidate.
Residual Votes (0%, 200, 2000)
The final map, the lower rightmost, reveals the most interesting conclusion of the currently unofficial result. This map illustrates the difference between the number of total ballots cast and the number cast in the Senate Election; this difference is commonly referred to as the residual vote. The counties are colored with respect to the first map, but the degree of coloration corresponds to the number of residual votes in a given county. The lightest color depicts a county with fewer than 200 residual votes, followed by the middle color with 200-2,000 residual votes, and finally the darkest color representing a county with more than 2,000 residual votes.
Clarification Update:
Here's why challenges FOR Franken, BY Franken are good:
If a vote was initially discarded for unclear intent, by the voting machine, Franken can say that vote should count FOR him. If Franken's challenge is "correct" Franken ADDS a vote.
Coleman seems to be focused on the opposite. He sees a vote that was initially counted, but says that it was NOT a vote for Al Franken.
Update [8:15 PM CT]: Well its later tonight and the new numbers have been posted by the MN SOS. First a recap of today's official result:
Franken: +637 (+/- 76)
Coleman: +57 (+/- 65)
Net Franken: 580
The challenge numbers have also been updated and are shown below using the postive/negative convention already established:
Franken: +637 (+/- 76)
Coleman: +57 (+/- 65)
Net Franken: 580
Unfortunately the new challenge numbers do not factor in the withdrawn ballots by both campaigns; there is a disclaimer on the results page explicitly stating that "these totals do not include results for 633 challenged ballots that were withdrawn by the Al Franken campaign." I would also assume that the Coleman challenges were not withdrawn today based upon a comparison between the challenge numbers of today and yesterday; Coleman gained 70 and Franken 112. Unless Franken challenged 745 ballots today, Coleman's frivolous challenges are also included in today's count.