While the US has been having an election, getting excited by a transition some aspects of which are important and others which are not, watching the auto and finnacial service industry spiral into depression. In the rest of the world events has been moving on but not having as much coverage as previously.
One of the issues which has been having some coverage is the Status of Forces Agreement between the US and Iraq, which has to be agreed before Dec 31, 2008 (while Bush is still POTUS) as the UN Resolution which authorises troops there expires.
The same issue applies to the rest of the "Coalition" so what have they been doing: join me after the fold to see who will still be in "in-Country" com inaguration day.
I wrote this originally last month but the position seems to be changing daily.
Well countries have been drifting away from the coalition since 2004 but actually the position was pretty stable in 2007-8.
Several countries were major allies and felt obliged to take part. They had real forces at the level of Brigade or Division i.e. in the Thousands say the Dutch or Italians both gone by 2006.
Several countries were traditional contributors to UN peacekeeping forces and were sold the 2003 line that there would be a peace to keep the war was over at the "Mission Accompolished" moment and they would recieve some gratitude from the US, several quickly went home as Iraq disintigrated in 2003-4.
The reminder were ex-Soviet States nervous about a future powerful Russia and building up good will with the US.
Well between January 2007 and Aug 2008 or 20 months the only withdrawal was the Danes in late 2007.
So what has happened since August.
Georgia: Understandably all 2000 gone home in respose to the little trouble with Russia.
Poland: had forces (a few there on day 1) peaked at 2,500 and control of several provinces and a multinational Division, everybody went home by 31st October 2008.
Lithuania: last of Lithuanian contingent home on August 1st 2008.
Latvia: last of Latvian contingent returned home on November 8 2008.
Armenia: all home October 2008
Khasakhstan: all home October 2008
Mongolia: all home September 2008
last 3 only around 100 each but still they stuck around for 4 years and all left at the same time in the last few weeks.
South Korea: has drifted down from a few thousand troops to 600 last troops left on 5th December 2008.
Romania: until recently talking about staying till 2011, announced on November 5th that all 515 troops would be withdrawn before end of 2008, then they have a congressional election on 30th November, and while the congress is trying to agree who won (115 for one of the parties and 114 to the other, with around 100 split between several smaller parties), the President announces they are all staying till 2011.
Bulgaria: 155 troops and on November 6th announced all forces will be withdrawn by the end of this year, and last trrops returned home on December 17th.
Azerbijan: announced November 7th all 150 would be home for Christmas, and had left by December 4th.
Did something happen somewhere on November 4th?
Moldova: On October 15th announced everybody home by the end of the year, and they went home on December 17th.
Macedonia: announced 8th October all troops will be gone by December 2008, a farewell ceremony was held on November 26th and they were all gone within the following week.
Bosnia and Hercegovina: withdrew contingent on November 29th.
Czech Republic: withdrew last of the contingent on December 4th
Tonga: last contingent left on December 5th
Albania: last of troops with drawn December 17th
Ukraine: a contingent which had been as many as 2,000 at the peak had been pretty much withdrawn in 2005 but a small training team of 40 or so reamianed allowing the Pentagon to keep them on the Coalition webpage and headed notepaper. Last of contingent withdrew December 9th.
Ok so who does that leave:
Well stll there in 2009:
UK: at present the second biggest force at 4,400 and more than 50% of all non-US forces, was trying to negotiate it's own status of Forces agreement. Initially had planned to simply piggy back on a US agreement but as that took so long to negotiate had to negotiate in paralel with the US and the Iraqi's. Eventually Iraq proposes a single agreement for all non-US trrops. Timescale for withdrawal Iraqi government and UK talking about "Vast-majority" of force gone very early in 2009. Speculation of a 50-200 trainers to work with the Iraqi's. When published the law allows for end of all Combat operations on May 31st 2009, with a further 2 months allowed for withdrawal. Thus by July 31st all forces are supposed to be out of Iraq. There is talk of a seperate force of trainers working with the Iraqis afterwards but not part of the US comand structure and at most a few hundred.
Australia: The new Prime-Minister Rudd elected in late 2007 pledged to withdraw COMBAT Troops from Iraq, and they left in July 2008, but that leaves 300 (110 protecting their embassy, 100+ as part of a joint logistic operation, around 90 as laison officers scattered throughout Iraq). Australia may be surprised to find they may soon have the second largest force in Iraq after the US.
Estonia: Recently announced everyone home late 2008 or very early 2009.
El-Salvador: force has dropped from 380 to 200, had been embedded with the now withdrawn Polish force. No announcement of withdrawl yet.
Romania: force of 500 plus departure date dependant on the result of that election mentioned up thread!
NATO: a training mission with many countries supporting but at the level of 3-15 men from most countries, and a total force of less than 200.
and well that's it
around 20 nations many of whom only had 10-50 troops to justify a flag on the Multinational website or the Pentagon headed notepaper but realistically that was their only role, but some provided forces into the thousands and fought and took casualties, have all gone.
Who will be last to go? Any Aussies out there surprised to find PM Rudd supporting the second largest force in Iraq sometime soon?
Multi-National force in Iraq
Iraqi Parliament argues over remaining forign contingents the law approved by the cabinet was yesterday thrown out by the Iraqi Parliament, it is unclear if the objections are in principle or are more to do with process, i.e. all remaining countries being treated as a single group.
It now looks like by July 31st when US combat troops are supposed to be withdrawn from Iraqi cities the remaining forign forces will have gone altogether and Obama will be left with a purely US operation without even a figleaf of international support.