About 6 million votes - that's the estimate the GLBT community offered Obama in the November election. With the Warren controversy, it's likely he'll lose about half of those votes, maybe more if the kids are paying attention. But what are those 3+ million going to do in 2012? Vote for the Republican that gets nominated? No, they're not. Unless the Republican comes out for GLBT rights - a policy platform that's toxic to any GOP contender. The GOP contender will have to go kiss Warren's ring to get nominated. The GLBT community won't vote for such a candidate.
If anything, they'll stay home.. But Obama won't lose them to the GOP.
But if Obama fixes the economy, gets us out of Iraq, and makes strides on Green energy - he will be re-elected. He'll still be popular with the large majority that elected him. More Hispanics will be registered to vote in the Southwest. More independents will have warmed up to him.
He can afford to lose 3 million votes and still win re-election by at least 50 electoral votes, probably more.
Those are the facts.
Now, here's the other issue - time is on the side of the GLBT movement. With ups and downs and stops and starts, the tide is still rising in favor of the GLBT rights. A generation ago we saw the Bowers case in the USSC. A generation ago, Harvey Milk had to loose I think 3 elections before he was elected. A couple of generations ago, gay men were rounded up in paddywagons and taken downtown just because they were congregating in bars.
Today, over 1 million children are being raised in same sex households.
Today, GLBT folks can be out and proud in the majority of major cities in America (not all - but in most larger coastal cities and larger ones in the Midwest).
The Warrens of the world will do what they do - but they're not the future. They are the past.
I'm upset with Obama over this. It's unacceptable. But we all knew he was going to start upsetting us, perplexing us, frustrating us as soon as November 5th started.
He's still the most inspirational Democrat in a generation. He's still planning an agenda that hits 90% of the liberal, progressive agenda. He's still entering the White House with the worst economy in 3 generations and two ongoing quagmire wars. He still needs our help and I think he'll still give us hope and change.