With an unexpected win in Maine today, it is becoming less and less likely that this contest will go to the convention for a few important reasons. By my projections (which are probably overly-generous to Clinton) when the whole process plays out, Obama will have won 33 states and D.C. to Hillary Clinton’s 14 states (excluding Michigan, Florida, and the still undecided New Mexico)and has the potential to wrap it up at four critical points...
If Obama wins all 3 "Chesapeake Tuesday" contests as he is expected to do, and wins Hawaii, his home state, and Wisconsin in the next round, he will have won 10 CONTESTS IN A ROW all following a Super Tuesday in which he won the most states and the most delegates. If Obama’s momentum is strong enough to flip either Ohio OR Texas on March 4th and take either Rhode Island or Vermont (Vermont appears likely) I think Hillary will be forced to have "very frank discussions" with her staff on March 5th and seriously consider leaving the race. The next two contests are Wyoming and Misssissippi, which should easily go for Obama.
Following March 11th there is a 6 WEEK break before Pennsylvania on April 22nd. There will be SUBSTANTIAL pressure on Hillary from Democratic Party leaders and probably the press as well to drop out at that point and allow the Democratic Party to come together and begin taking on John McCain. Even if she doesn’t leave the race then, those six weeks will be full of news stories about Obama’s huge momentum and Clinton’s last stand. If she stays in she could definitely still win Pennsylvania, which would pull her close in the delegate race, but the next 7 races are all favorable to Obama, giving him a FOURTH chance to wrap it up.
I realize that winning states are not as important as winning delegates, but under this scenario Obama would have a huge lead in states AND a sizable lead among pledged delegates. What could throw this off? A re-vote in Michigan and Florida, heavy amounts of superdelegates jumping on Hillary’s campaign to give her one last chance, some kind of DNC deal, and probably many other factors. But you can not underestimate the power of narratives in politics. If Obama wins 10 states in a row I predict he will upset Hillary in one of the march 4th states and close it out there or shortly after with Wyoming and Mississippi. Let’s open the floor to debate! My projections are below:
Barack Obama
Iowa
South Carolina
Alabama
Alaska
Colorado
Connecticut
Delaware
Georgia
Idaho
Illinois
Kansas
Minnesota
Missouri
North Dakota
Utah
Louisiana
Washington
Nebraska
Maine
Washington D.C. *
Maryland *
Virginia *
Hawaii *
Wisconsin *
Vermont *
Wyoming*
Mississippi*
Indiana*
North Carolina*
West Virginia*
Kentucky*
Oregon*
Montana*
South Dakota*
Hillary Clinton
New Hampshire
Nevada
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Massachusetts
New Jersey
New York
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Ohio*
Texas*
Rhode Island*
Pennsylvania*
* PREDICTIONS