According to the "leaked" spreadsheet from the Obama campaign, they expected to win every state in the Potomac Primary, although not very handily. Using their delegate estimator, they expected to win about 10 more delegates than Clinton. Below the fold I'll show you why their estimate is way too low.
There are 168 delegates to earn tomorrow. 15 from DC, 70 from MD, and 83 from VA. From the spreadsheet below:
Obama forecasts a win of 58-42 for DC, giving him +3 delegates (9-6).
Another win is forecast in MD, 53-46, giving him +4 delegates (37-33).
He expects a close win in VA, 50-48, giving him +3 delegates (43-40).
This is an extremely conservative estimate. Let's go for a worst case scenario for Clinton fans. For instance:
If Obama wins 80-20% in DC, he'll win the delegates 12-3 (+9).
If MD goes 60-40 for him, then Obama wins delegates 42-28 (+14).
If VA is also 60-40 for Obama, then he win 49-34 in delegates (+15).
This would mean Obama wins +38 for the night. With the polls showing Obama leading MD/VA by about 15-20 points, it could be a very good night indeed for him and put to rest any doubt about who is leading in delegates. This will be my test for a big night for Obama. If he actually wins with those types of percentages, then he will really start to accumulate delegates fast. In addition, no more spin will be possible about who has gotten the most votes or delegates, because Obama will clearly be in the lead. My forecast is for Obama +30 for the night, and I hope I'm too low!
The spreadsheet:
http://weblogs.newsday.com/...