Pardon the melodramatic headline, but I've been crunching the numbers and that's the inescapable conclusion. She seems to have already abandoned all of the primaries between now and March 4th by campaigning in Texas instead of Wisconsin.
If you take a look at the pledged delegates already allocated, here's the current breakdown (From CNN):
Obama: 981
Clinton: 923
Unallocated / Other: 93 (26 John Edwards, 67 Unallocated; Most unallocated delegates are in CO and WA, so this might give Obama another +15 or +20 advantage over Clinton)
Follow me over the jump for projected allocations on the races through March 4th:
Here's Hillary Clinton's best case scenario:
Date ST TD OD CD
2/12 DC 15 11 4
2/12 MD 70 42 28
2/12 VA 83 50 33
2/19 HI 20 15 5
2/19 WI 74 38 36
3/4 OH 141 68 73
3/4 RI 21 10 11
3/4 TX 193 87 106
3/4 VT 15 7 8
Projected 632 328 304
(ST= State; TD= Total Delegates; OD= Obama Delegates; CD= Clinton Delegates)
This means that the elections today come out as the polls have predicted, and Hawaii goes as is expected. This particular projection also states that HIllary manages to narrowly lose Wisconsin, which is not very likely at this point. Given Obama's big win in neighboring MN and Clinton's lack of campaigning in the state, expect it to fall significantly more towards Obama. This projection also gives Clinton a sweep of the March 4th states, with small wins in OH, RI and VT, and a big win in TX. Even with this extremely optimistic (from a Clinton standpoint) projection, Clinton is still behind by 24 delegates between today and March 5th.
Getting back to the title, let's total up the pledged delegate count of Clinton's best case scenario:
Decided races:
Clinton: 923
Obama: 981
Undecided, Optimistic Projection:
Clinton: 304
Obama: 328
Optimistic Projection Total on March 5th:
Clinton: 1227
Obama: 1309
In other words, Clinton's "big state" strategy is doomed to failure. Even if she performs spectacularly on March 5th, she will still be facing a deficit of 80 pledged delegates. Her campaign desperately needs her to win both in Wisconsin and in all of the March 4th states in order to have a shadow of a chance. Since she's apparently already abandoned Wisconsin, they don't appear to have much of a chance.
The only other conclusion is that the Clinton campaign is banking on both a huge superdelegate advantage and the seating of FL and MI delegates. I don't think anyone would like it if either of those happened.