This diary will detail the reason why Florida and Michigan could just be the deciding factors in this election, even after having their delegates stripped.
Small synopsis: Right now each candidate needs 60% or more of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, even counting current super delegate numbers. If super delegates continue their current trend -- 50-40 for Clinton, then this contest may come down not to primaries and caucuses. It just may come down to Florida and Michigan.
To first begin, I must set some parameters for my discussion. I will define these as follows
- No state is equal. Texas != Arkansas != South Carolina. As this is true, you cannot apply one state's demographics to another state. Each state has its own culture, its own makeup, and its own way of interpreting information. So there will be no comparing states in this post.
- No race is equal. A caucus is not a primary. A primary is not a caucus. As such, I will label each and make small analysis based upon numbers.
- No candidate is superior. This is absolutely vital to the discussion. Obama is not superior to Clinton. Clinton is not superior to Obama. There will be no candidate pandering in this post.
- Geography does not immediately beget a specific vote. Therefore, we cannot assume wins due to birthplace, living place, or origin -- nor can we assume states vote due to proximity. As such, there will be no judgment of who won which state and why.
- Data must be interpreted as it gives nothing intrinsic, therefore I will give some interpretation -- but it won't be egregious.
As we've set up these operating parameters, we get to the discussion of just who is winning this race.
The format of the following information is state - form of vote - delegates (O) for Obama, (C) for Clinton. Source is CNN's data, not including super-delegates. States with delegates outstanding will be denoted by a * with a number to denote how many.
State - Voting Method - Delegate count - +% for winner - Outstanding Delegates
Obama has currently 22 victories, according to a recent post from Kos:
DC - Primary - 11 (O), 3(C) - +62% Obama - 1 out
Georgia +36 - Primary - 59 (O), 26 (C) - +36% Obama - 2 out
Illinois - Primary - 104 (O), 49 (C) - +32% Obama
South Carolina - Primary - 25 (O), 12 (C) - +32% Obama - 8 out
Virginia - Primary - 54 (O), 29 (C) - +29% Obama
Louisiana - Primary - 33 (O), 22 (C) - +21 Obama - 1 out
Utah - Primary - 14 (O), 9 (C) - +18% Obama
Alabama - Primary - 26 (O), 25 (C) - +14% Obama - 1 out
Delaware - Primary - 9 (O), 6 (C) - +10% Obama
Connecticut - Primary - 26 (O), 22 (C) - +4% Obama
Missouri - Primary - 36 (O), 36 (C) - +1% Obama
Idaho - Caucus - 15 (O), 3 (C) - +51 Obama
Alaska - Caucus - 9 (O), 4 (C) - +50% Obama
Kansas - Caucus - 23 (O), 9 (C) - +48% Obama
Washington - Caucus - 35 (O), 15 (C) - +37% Obama - 28 out
Nebraska - Caucus - 16 (O), 8(C) - +36% Obama
Colorado - Caucus - 33 (O), 13(C) - +35% Obama - 9 out
Minnesota - Caucus - 48 (O), 24 (C) - +35% Obama
North Dakota - Caucus - 8 (O), 5 (C) - +24% Obama
Maryland - Caucus - 28 (O), 18 (C) - +23% Obama
Maine - Caucus - 15 (O), 9 (C) - +19% Obama
Iowa - Caucus - 16 (O), 15 (C) - +9% Obama - 14 out (Edwards)
So what does this data tell us?
Half of Barack Obama's current wins have come from primaries, half from caucuses.
In caucuses, where he performs by much larger margins (only one being at or below 10%), delegate counts are significantly lower and his gains are often smaller. His largest delegate split in caucuses so far is Washington -- 20 delegates and counting.
From Primary wins, Obama has claimed a current 397 delegates. From caucuses, Obama has claimed 246 delegates.
From these primary loses, Clinton has claimed 239. From caucus losses, Clinton has claimed 123 delegates.
From Obama's combined wins, he has claimed 643 delegates. From these combined loses, Clinton has claimed 362. Altogether, 1005 delegates have been accounted for. 1069 delegates in all.
Obama has claimed 64% of the 1005 delegates, Clinton has claimed 36%.
- Of the final 1069 count, Obama has claimed 60%. Clinton has claimed 34%. 6% are outstanding.
In one race did Obama and Clinton share delegates -- 1% Missouri. In no races did Clinton claim more delegates than Obama despite losing.
Now we will move to Clinton's winning data. She has won 10 contests per Kos' post.
Arkansas - Primary - 27 (C), 8 (O) - +43% Clinton
Oklahoma - Primary - 24 (C), 14(O) - +24% Clinton
New York - Primary - 139 (C), 93 (O) - +17% Clinton
Massachusetts - Primary - 55 (C), 38 (O) - +15% Clinton
Tennessee - Primary - 40 (C), 28 (O) - +13% Clinton
California - Primary - 204 (C), 161 (O) - +10% Clinton - 5 out
New Jersey - Primary - 59 (C), 48 (O) - +10% Clinton
Arizona - Primary - 31 (C), 25 (O) - +9% Clinton
New Hampshire - Primary - 9(C), 9(O) - +3% Clinton - 4 out (Edwards)
Nevada - Caucus - 12 (C), 13 (O) - +6% Clinton
So now we turn to this data, and we find the following:
Clinton has won more primaries than caucuses.
In one race did Clinton and Obama tie delegates (3% New Hampshire), and in one race saw Obama claim more delegates than Clinton despite Clinton's percentage victory -- 6% Nevada.
Clinton's largest Primary percentage win gave her 19+ delegates. Her largest delegate win gave her +43 delegates.
From these primary wins, Clinton has claimed 588 delegates. From his primary loses, Obama has claimed 424 delegates.
When added with the caucus, Clinton has claimed 600 delegates. Obama has claimed 437.
These numbers, combined, give us 1037 delegates. 1012 from primaries. 9 are outstanding.
Clinton has thus won, from her victories, 58% of the 1037. Obama has won 42% -- .008% of delegates are outstanding.
Now, what do these two numbers together tell us? (And are you tired yet?!)
Clinton has won 600 delegates from her victories. Obama has won 437 from his losses.
Obama has won 643 delegates from his victories. Clinton has won 362 from her losses.
That means that in all, Clinton has currently won 962 delegates to Obama's 1080.
Do not jump the gun yet, because we have more numbers to crunch!
Together, there have been 2042 delegates decided (could I have just lifted this number instead of doing my own work? Sure, but I'm a masochist).
That means that Obama has won 53% of the delegates currently. Clinton has won 47%. The difference between their delegates right now is 118 delegates.
Now are you ready for the fun part? That's 5.8% of delegates difference between Obama and Clinton right now.
Now let's look at some of what we have left.
Texas - 228 delegates.
Pennsylvania - 188 delegates.
Ohio - 161 delegates.
North Carolina - 134 delegates.
Indiana - 84 delegates.
Wisconsin - 92 delegates.
Oregon - 65 delegates.
Kentucky - 60 delegates.
Mississippi - 40 delegates
West Virginia - 39 delegates.
Rhode Island - 32 delegates.
Nebraska - 31 delegates.
Hawaii - 29 delegates
Montana - 24 delegates.
South Dakota - 23 delegates.
Vermont - 23 delegates.
Wyoming - 18 delegates.
2024 delegates have been decided. 1266 still to go.
38% of the delegates have still to be decided.
711 of them are in 4 states -- 56% of the upcoming 1266 delegates are in 4 states.
Obama needs 945 delegates to win -- 75% of the delegates left.
Hillary Clinton needs 1063 -- 84% of the delegates left.
What does this tell me? Neither candidate is likely to win the nomination without one of two things -- superdelegates or Florida/Michigan coming back. Neither candidate can win over 75% of the delegates.
So now we turn our attention to super delegates.
According to RealClearPolitics, there are 796 super delegates.
Obama has 156 Super Delegates -- Clinton has 242. 398 super delegates have been decided. 371 super delegates haven't decided.
Clinton currently has 30% of the super delegates. Obama has 20%. Exactly 50% of the super delegates are not accounted for yet.
So let's play match maker, and apply these numbers to current delegate counts simply to see who wins.
Clinton's 962 + 242 super delegates = 1204
Obama's 1080 + 156 super delegates = 1236
CNN's numbers show 1253 Obama, 1211 Clinton.
So, knowing what we know, let's apply these numbers to our delegates remaining.
1266 remaining.
2025 to win.
To win the candidacy, Obama would have to claim (going off CNN's numbers) 789 delegates of the remaining 1266 -- 60% of all remaining delegates.
To win the candidacy, Clinton would have to claim (going off CNN's numbers) 814 delegates -- 64% of remaining delegates.
So now I wrap it all up:
With over 50% of the remaining delegates in Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina -- the winner of those will be on the road to the nomination IF they can win large numbers in all four. As reality will not allow one candidate to win 100% of the vote, it is likely that this will stretch well beyond these four treasure trove states.
Instead, one thing becomes clear -- unless each candidate wins rather large in each state, one thing will have to happen:
Michigan and Florida may have to come back.
Florida has 210 delegates. Michigan has 156 delegates. Together, they account for 366 delegates.
Unless either candidate can take 60% or more of every remaining delegate, this race may come down not to super delegates -- but to Florida and Michigan.