After 12 long months as underdog, the media is finally ready to crown Obama the frontrunner. The benefits of this shift are significant: the mere aura of inevitability - quite apart from his actual delegate lead - brings new urgency to donors and superdelegates alike. That said, if James Carville has any say in the matter, the new CW may not last long. To wit:
"The truth is that Sen. Clinton has to win Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania...If she wins those three, she's probably the nominee."
POOF! What was once a firewall is now a victory strategy. A brilliant slight of hand from CNN's cagiest hick.
Let's hope his fellow pundits aren't dumb enough to bite. But if they do, and an OH/TX/PA sweep becomes the new benchmark for Clinton's comeback, Obama advocates should be prepared to set the record straight. Here are a few talking points:
1. Winning isn't anything
Given that 1 or 2 point victories yield only a teaspoon more in delegates, the idea that merely "winning" the Big Three can catapult HRC back in front is laughable. It's the mathematical equivalent of "Obama can lock it up with a blowout in Guam".
2. Even big wins in big states can be offset by huge wins in small states
So what if Clinton wins handily in a state like Ohio? Yes, a 10-pt Buckeye State win would cut the delegate lead by 15. But let me introduce you to a little state called Mississippi, whose demos (largest black electorate on continent) make South Carolina look like a Hannah Montana concert, and where a not-unlikely 70-30 rout could compensate entirely for the aforementioned Ohio deficit.
3. Why do only 3 States count as "Big"?
Ohio (141), Pennsylvania (158), and Texas (193) all weigh in as heavyweights. But what about North Carolina (115)? It's only 26 delegates behind Ohio, yet it somehow fails to qualify. Where exactly is this magic threshold? And when was it decided?
4. Advantages no one talks about
Hey, remember when everyone said that February favored Obama and then it turned out to be true. Well the same can and should be said about March April and May too. Southern, prairie, caucus, rectangle - pretty much every other contest besides The Three falls into a Obama-favored category. How about this: there are more delegates to win in states bordering Illinois than there are in all of Texas.
5. The Big Three no different than The Little Fifteen
Sure, OH TX & PA together add up to a healthy (492) delegate prize. But that's still a good deal less than the total delegates at stake in the other 15 contests (583). The Big Three might be Clinton's firewall, but as far as delegates go, they're just like all the rest.