Many of us were shocked this week when Andrew Horne bowed out of the Democratic Primary to defeat US Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell. Just two days before, Horne asserted that he wouldn't drop out for any reason.
There's a ton of speculation about the reversal: Two of his opponents can afford to push the limits of the millionaire's amendment, Governor Beshear all but endorsed Bruce Lunsford, as did the Kentucky Democratic Party leadership, Chuck Schumer, and the DSCC.
Horne had a lot of time to think about the financial weight his competition brought to the table, so it's hard to imagine a sudden decision based on this. From all indications, his decision was based on "advice" (cough) taken from party strategists. You know, the Big Picture people.
For those of you who aren't familiar with Bruce Lunsford, he's the brains behind Vencor & Ventas, healthcare companies who were found guilty in 2001 of submitting false claims to Medicare, Medicaid, and TRICARE resulting in a 104 Million dollar settlement. Bruce walked away wealthy and since then has been trying to buy himself public office. He's also donated more than $120,000 to Democrats, but disturbingly also to Republicans, including Mitch McConnell. He contributed to Anne Northup over John Yarmuth in 2006, and even endorsed Republican Ernie Fletcher for Governor after dropping out of the Democratic primary in 2003. According to BluegrassReport, "of the $52,000 that Lunsford donated to federal candidates or committees between 1995 and 2000 only $11,750 went to Democrats versus $40,250 that went to Republicans."
Bruce Lunsford is not well-liked among Kentucky Democrats. Are party insiders counting on another 2006-style anti Republican tidal wave to oust Kentucky's senior senator? In a rare candid moment, Chuck Schumer admitted as much:
"We think we can win the seat with a party united behind our eventual nominee. We had a pretty good record last cycle and we're trying to duplicate it this time around."
In arguably the Single. Most. Important. Senate. Race. In. The. Country. Our Democratic leadership made it clear that a stuffed suit is their preferred candidate. My opinion is this: As with all clubs, it's the members who control admission to "the world's most exclusive club," and there's no room for another Dodd or Wellstone. Lunsford may be easy pickins for McConnell's smear machine, but McConnell won't pull out those stops unless he needs to. Without any skeletons in the closet, Andrew Horne would have made Mitch desperate for ammunition, and it would have been a helluva dogfight. A helluva fight.
Does the DSCC really think Bruce Lunsford is the strongest possible candidate to withstand the barrage of Mitch's $10 Million warchest? Was this a strategic decision, or a financial decision?
Some have speculated that since the odds are slim anyway, why not put in a candidate who will force McConnell to spend all his money here, instead of distributing it to a handful of his colleagues in need. That's one idea, but Bruce would have to kick down $20 million of his personal fortune to be competitive with Mitch, whose donors wouldn't have any problem tripling their contributions. It's probably the same "strategy" that waited with thirteen minutes to spare, allowing thrillionaire Bruce and bagman J.B. Poersch to get stuck in traffic and nearly miss the filing deadline. I think the real strategy would be to force McConnell to raise money without returning to the currently maxed-out well, but what do I know.
But maybe there's another strategy at play. Maybe the KDP wants Lunsford to lose. Seriously. Last month they confronted Michael Kelley, the sole Democrat registered to run against Geoff Davis in KY-04, and "advised" (cough!) him to drop out. Their fear is that Davis would spend a million dollars trashing the Democrats in his TV market, and that would hurt the Kentucky State Senate and House candidates downticket. In KY-01, Ed Whitfield was about to run unopposed until McConnell had Heather Ryan fired, after which she decided to run for office (note: I can't find out whether Greg Pruitt filed or not, info isn't at the SOS website).
The Kentucky Democratic Party's strategy is to roll over and die in these Federal races.
And it's a strategy I can partially understand. If the U.S. Senate is going to have a strong Democratic majority, they can do it without Kentucky. Neither do they need two more seats in the House of Representatives to maintain a clear majority. But here in our State Senate, Republicans have us hogtied, 21 to 16 22 to 15.
The Governor tried to Hand-pick Democrat Scott Alexander to replace now-Lt. Governor Mongiardo in the 30th Senate district, but anointing candidates just doesn't work. Either it pisses off the locals, or it reinforces the power to play kingmaker. In the 30th, it did both and resulted in an embarrassing loss of Mongiardo's former Senate seat.
So I just can't see the benefits of crowning Bruce Lunsford the official Democratic candidate. It's a practice that's been shown not to work, and an observant person has to wonder if that isn't the point.
Cross-Posted at BluegrassRoots