I sat in on a townhall meeting with Obama yesterday in one of the reddest counties in the state. I listened to two women in their 50s talk about how they had never voted for a democrat in their lives but would be crossing over to vote for this man. They talked of their disdain for Hillary, which is understandable coming from the Republican echo chamber. But, I watched as these two women (strangers) talked about their inspiration. They sat next to a classroom of young black children, a latino couple, an asian couple, several elderly folks, college students, and working professionals on their lunch break. It made me feel good about my state. Moreso, it made me feel good to be an American. When I saw the Republican women weeping when Obama discussed healthcare, I thought to myself:
"That's it, I'm in a room that looks like an over-sized Lions club in a non-descript Wisconsin town packed with 500 voters and 200 press members and I'm seeing the world change -- neighbor by neighbor." That, my friends, is a force that should not, and possibly can not, be stopped.
Here is the math:
---------------------
Current PPP Poll
Women: 46% Obama 43% Clinton
Men: 56% Obama 35% Clinton
Democrat: 46% Obama 44% Clinton
Republican: 63% Obama 28% Clinton
Independent: 63% Obama 25% Clinton
White: 49% Obama 41% Clinton
Black: 66% Obama 24% Clinton
'Other': 41% Even
---------------------
2004 Primary Turnout (CNN Exit Poll)
817,421 total
White: 89%
Black: 6%
Latino: 3%
Other: 2%
18-29: 11%
30-44: 25%
45-64: 44%
or
65-: 80%
65+: 20%
No High School: 4%
HS Grad: 23%
Some College: 28%
College Grad: 22%
Post Grad: 23%
Democrat: 62%
Republican: 9%
Indepedent: 29%
------------------
NeuBrew's Estimate
An even 1 million people show up to the primary (easier math), here are the following projections. Undecided's break 50-50 for each candidate. African American results move closer to recent exit polls. Black turnout edges closer to a third of eligible AA voters. Remember, Wisconsin has some of the highest turnout numbers in the nation, right up there with Minnesota.
Race
----
White: 86% 860,000 Obama 54%: 464,400 Clinton 46%: 395,600
Black: 10% 100,000 Obama 85%: 85,000 Clinton 15%: 15,000
Latino: 3% 30,000 Obama 50%: 15,000 Clinton 50%: 15,000
Other: 1% 10,000 Obama 50%: 5,000 Clinton 50%: 5,000
Total: Obama (57%): 569,400 Clinton (43%): 430,600
Gender
-----
Male 48%: 480,000 Obama 61%: 292,800 Clinton 39%: 187,200
Female 52%: 520,000 Obama 51%: 265,200 Clinton 49%: 254,800 (slight uptick)
Total: Obama (56%): 558,000 Clinton (44%): 442,000
Party
------
Dem 60%: 600,000 Obama 51%: 306,000 Clinton 49%: 294,000
Ind 30%: 300,000 Obama 69%: 207,000 Clinton 31%: 93,000
Rep 10%: 100,000 Obama 68%: 68,000 Clinton 32%: 32,000
Total: Obama (58%): 581,000 Clinton (42%): 419,000
Overall Projection: Obama 56 to 58% / Clinton 42 to 44%
Considering the fact that Obama is campaigning much stronger in the state right now, and is hitting the communities he needs to hit he could outperform these numbers. The perfect storm for him would be Milwaukee GOTV going overboard, higher independent numbers, and more late undecideds
breaking to him instead of 50-50. With a good amount of effort on the Obama staff and volunteers, he could break 60%. If that happens, there are 2 weeks where the media will be stewing on these numbers. In that sense, the State of Wisconsin has created the narrative for Obama's momentum into Marth 5th, and, in turn, the nomination.
Moral of the story: keep working.