Lost in all the hyperventilation over pledged and "super" delegates is a more ominous reality. If you are still obsessed about delegate counting, the most states won argument and the virtues of Barack Obama's inspirational qualities vs Hillary Clinton, you may be missing the point. Follow this Texas Obama supporter below the fold for just a moment.
What matters is the media narrative. If Clinton wins Wisconsin, the networks will call it an upset. Obama leads there narrowly in the polls right now. The Clintons are still working the state hard. Make no mistake about it, if Hillary Clinton wins Wisconsin the media will declare her the comeback kid and all bets will be off for Obama. The media will re-write the script in her favor and give her important and indisputable electoral momentum going into March 4.
Opinion polls in Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania do not look good for Obama. If he loses those states, it is ludicrous to argue that Clinton will not be the nominee, no matter where her pledged delegate counts stand. Perceptions created by the media become reality. She will be percieved as the candidate who wins the big muscular states with big electoral votes The media will portray her with the greater rights to superdelegates, whether we like it or not.
I believe Texas offers the best win potential for Obama. I hope he spends two weeks here. It is the big enchilada. Obama trails here by 10 but appears to be making inroads. Texas is ready made for Obama. His personality is a match for Texans who love underdogs. Texas is anti-union and that hurts Hillary. Its primary and caucus system give Obama an edge. The endorsements of Jim Hightower, Kirk Watson and Hispanic leaders are all positive signs. Obama can thread together a powerful coalition here.
I see nothing moving the needle in Ohio. At least not yet. I think Ohio may be lost, what with Clinton's labor ties and all. But the buzz on the ground in Texas is very positive for Obama. He can and must win Texas.
If Obama wins Wisconsin and Texas he will be the nominee. If not, he probably won't.