American Research Group polls have been shockingly, unforgivably wrong during this race, but since their Texas poll showing an Obama lead got some attention their Wisconsin poll is up now.
Clinton 49 (50)
Obama 43 (41)
I actually see two ways in which this is bad for Clinton. One, well, is that it's an ARG poll. Two, if we take this poll seriously at all, it shows minor movement away from Clinton in the week that she ran her first harsh negative TV ads against Obama, clamoring for a debate while not actually campaigning in the state. So even factoring in ARG, there has been no momentum for Clinton in Wisconsin all week.
ARG's internals are interesting, assuming the same 62% Dem/38% Republican and independent split of the 2004 Kerry-Edwards-Dean primary. And it shows Obama winning independents by 25 points while Clinton wins Democrats by 26 points. That would be a stunning result - Obama only lost WHITE Democrats by 12 points in Virginia. (He won black Democrats by 80 points.)
If Clinton wins Wisconsin, it'll be the first feather in ARG's cap for a long time. If not, and she loses it in the expected manner (tying or narrowly winning Democratic voters and getting killing among crossover voters), another black eye for the polling company.