The recent Gallup article suggests that one of the reasons the race is tightening is because Obama is starting to pick up in one of Hilary's strongest demographics. I am talking..WOMEN. As late as 18th of January, Hillary had a very strong lead in their polls among women 54-24. She also had an advantage with men- 41-34 which while not as staggering was respectable.
http://www.gallup.com/...
Polls on the 28-30th average subset reveal that now Obama has the same support among men (Hillary remains the same 40, but Obama goes up from 34 to 40), but what is rather surprising is that the lead she had among women seems to be smaller. Hillary has lost 8 PP and Obama has gained 13 points.
Gallup does not offer crosstabs but claims that this is occuring across all age groups and income levels which is baffling. Obama has enjoyed the support of younger female democrats as per exit polls, but the 50+ female voter was very strongly favoring Hillary all along.
I looked at other state based polls to see whether there seems to be a tightening of gender based choices. I can't see in most of them a tightening of numbers. Her lead remains considerable, though his favorability numbers have been rising among women.
Theories amount of course, from minority female votes, to compensation by younger female voters. I am disinclined to believe those are the reasons because Hillary does have the Hispanic woman edge to compensate and that telephone polls are more likely to cause an under-representation of urban young female voters than the opposite. (The cellphone dynamic)
If you have any sources, theories, thoughts please let me know- as long as it is from a trend perspective. I shall update the diary, crediting you so that we can get a holistic perspective of how and where women are going with their vote.
Obviously, I will have to omit the "because he/she rocks" type arguments because they are subjective, but please do feel free to post them in the comments.
UPDATE: Some of you seem to be thinking I allude to a monolithic voting bloc. No. I am not talking about identity based politics, and I am not speaking about sheep like voting turnouts. I do however believe that behind this "above 50" woman's bloc lies a whole host of motivations some of which would be more responsive to an Obama, and some more responsive to a Hillary. What I was HOPING you'd help me with is evidence of these issues, which may be age related or gender related which would help me better analyze why this gender gap may be closing. Because what is narrowing may be a gender gap but it is not BECAUSE of gender. Hope that helps those of you who may be thinking I am being racist or sexist with this post.