A week ago I did a prediction on my badger state, and I couldn't be prouder about how we turned out. I thought a million voters on the democratic side would be expected. We beat that by 100,000. Fantastic. Also, the demographics basically held with our independent streak. The real question now becomes: Is Wisconsin now a representation of the race throughout the country? Can we project these numbers?
My prediction:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
Race
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White: 86% 860,000 Obama 54%: 464,400 Clinton 46%: 395,600
Black: 10% 100,000 Obama 85%: 85,000 Clinton 15%: 15,000
Latino: 3% 30,000 Obama 50%: 15,000 Clinton 50%: 15,000
Other: 1% 10,000 Obama 50%: 5,000 Clinton 50%: 5,000
Total: Obama (57%): 569,400 Clinton (43%): 430,600
Gender
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Male 48%: 480,000 Obama 61%: 292,800 Clinton 39%: 187,200
Female 52%: 520,000 Obama 51%: 265,200 Clinton 49%: 254,800 (slight uptick)
Total: Obama (56%): 558,000 Clinton (44%): 442,000
Party
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Dem 60%: 600,000 Obama 51%: 306,000 Clinton 49%: 294,000
Ind 30%: 300,000 Obama 69%: 207,000 Clinton 31%: 93,000
Rep 10%: 100,000 Obama 68%: 68,000 Clinton 32%: 32,000
Total: Obama (58%): 581,000 Clinton (42%): 419,000
Overall Projection: Obama 56 to 58% / Clinton 42 to 44%
Actual results:
Obama 645,554 58%
Clinton 452,590 41%
Male: 67% Obama 31% Clinton
Female: 50% Obama 50% Clinton