The Intrade prediction market currently has Hillary pegged at a 6.1% chance to become the Democratic Vice Presidential nominee, and Obama at 81% to become the Presidential nominee. This means that Intraders think it that the odds of Hillary becoming Obama's VP at less than 1 in 13.
Ridiculous! Now, I don't think it's particularly likely that Hillary becomes the VP. Maybe it's 1 in 4, maybe 1 in 5. But certainly not 1 in 13. Hillary brings a lot of negatives to an Obama ticket, but she also brings a TON of positives.
- She unites the Democratic party after a contentious nomination. Imagine what it would do for the Democratic party to have Hillary going around and stumping for Obama. Hillary in any other year would have likely won. For a number of reasons, more people have voted for her in the primaries than voted for Gore or Kerry.
- She's a brilliant thinker and debater and would provide some "gravitas" to the ticket. She can take hits and deal them back just as well.
- Star power. No VP candidate will draw the kind of fundraising and enthusiasm that Hillary will.
- Hillary still has tremendous strength among certain sectors of the populace, especially white women and low income voters.
- As VP, she would be much less of a lightning rod than at the front of the ticket.
Now, I'm not saying that Hillary is the likely Democratic Vice Presidential nominee. But, depending on how she handles herself in the next few weeks, she may be a bigger asset than any other potential VP nominee. MAYBE. Not saying it's a sure thing, but I think it's better than a 1 in 13 chance.
Now who's feelin' lucky?