There is no scientific analysis here whatsoever, simply reporting on the facts. On or about February 7th, an excel spreadsheet from the Obama campaign surfaced with projections in regards to upcoming Dem nomination races. I downloaded the file and plugged in the actual results from the races we've had in Feb.
conclusion of course is that Obama beat his own expectations. He handily won Super Tuesday. He won February. And if this month is any indication, the rest of the races won't look any better for Senator Clinton, absent some huge mistake by or revelation about Barack Obama.
Here's a pdf file of projections vs. actuals (and more projections by me for upcoming contests)
UPDATE: Here's a link to the original leaked excel spreadsheet (Which was initially reported on by Catherine Dodge and Alex Tanzi of Bloomberg)