Well...there are two days left to Super Tuesday. Let’s make a list of all the reasons Hillary Clinton will (most likely) lose to John McCain in November. Let me know if I missed anything.
The Experience Argument: Hillary has been touting her "experience" for more than a year now. She claims that she will be "ready on day one." Sadly, no one in their right mind is going to buy the argument that Hillary has more experience than John McCain. She’ll have to change her argument, but all her talk of "experience" is on the record and is fair game for the Republican smear machine.
The War: People hate the War in Iraq, but Hillary voted for it, just like McCain. She will have no moral or political ground to discuss the Democrats largest winning talking point. By nominating Hillary, we concede the anti-war argument to the GOP.
The Alienation of Obama Voters: Obama is bringing new people into the process. He is attracting young voters (who are actually voting) and independents and moderate Republicans. These people are passionate about and dedicated to him. It is quite possible that, if Hillary defeats Barack, these people will stay home in the fall. The enthusiasm just won’t be there. Hillary voters, however, are more standard Democratic voters. They are pragmatic and proven and they will coalesce around the Dem. Candidate.
50 Plus 1: Hillary’s negatives are high. If she is our nominee, the best we can hope for is a razor-thin margin of victory. In a perfect world, she’ll win all the states that John Kerry carried and, perhaps, add Ohio. Obama, on the other hand, has the potential to form a new majority. He could pick up a couple states in the south. He could pick up Iowa. He could pick up Kansas. He could, perhaps, take New Mexico and Colorado. He could even compete in McCain’s home state of Arizona. He could do this because he has broader appeal and he will bring aboard independents, moderate Republicans and new, younger Democratic voters. An impressive margin of victory would have sweeping coattails and allow him to actually get something done once he gets to Washington.
How Low will She Go?: Once she wins the nomination, the kinder, gentler Hillary Clinton – the Hillary that cries and fights for universal health care – will be gone. In her place will be Hillary the Hawk, soaring to her right in the blink of an eye. McCain, arguably, has more progressive credentials than Hillary (an argument for another day). He is positioned to siphon off moderate Democrats and independents, who are concerned with national security. To compete, Hillary will have to attack him from the right. The capitulating Clintons, who sided with the GOP on welfare reform, bankruptcy laws, free trade, communications policy and the "defense of marriage," will be back.
Billary: Bill Clinton is incapable of playing second fiddle. At some point, he will talk out of turn, wag his finger and get red faced on camera. The GOP will blend Hillary and Bill together, like a Democratic smoothie. They will become one in the same and voters will be left asking, "Who’s going to really be president, Hillary or Bill?" Independents and moderates will flee.
Galvanizing the Evangelicals: The Republican evangelical base hate McCain ... but, they hate Hillary Clinton more. A Clinton nomination is the only thing that will get these passionate, feisty evangelicals to vote and, more importantly, organize on behalf of the GOP. If we nominate Barack, odds are that they would stay home. (They may even vote for him ... gasp!)
Dynasty: Vice President Bush. President Bush. President Clinton. President Bush. President Clinton ... c’mon ... we’re a better democracy than this (I hope).
Health Care: Hillary’s plan does not reduce the cost of health insurance, yet mandates that every American buys it. This plan will be taken apart by the GOP, who will argue that Hillary will simply take more and more money out of your paycheck for the same old health insurance that you’ve always had. Barack’s plan is much harder to attack, because it focuses on reducing the costs of health care and contains no mandate.
The Bloomberg Factor: The prospect of Mike Bloomberg entering the race becomes less plausible every time McCain wins a state. But, if he were to enter the race, which would only happen if Hillary was the nominee, he would most certainly split the Democratic vote and hand the presidency to the GOP.
So ... let’s vote for someone who can actually win in the fall ... let’s vote for Barack Obama.