This diary is a tip sheet on what to watch for as the returns roll in tonight. Looking at the poll closing times gives you a sense of how the media will cover this evening's proceedings and how the talking heads will assess who won and lost.
Your comments and suggestions (and corrections if necessary) are welcome.
7 PM Eastern, 4 PM Pacific: Polls close in Georgia and American Samoa. If Georgia isn't quickly called for Obama, it could be a bad sign for him. What will happen in Samoa is anyone's guess. I'd expect a Hillary win because the political establishment is for the most part lined up behind her.
8 PM Eastern, 5 PM Pacific: Polls close in 9 states. In the Northeast, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey and Delaware. In the South: Alabama, Oklahoma and Tennessee. In the Midwest: Illinois and Missouri. Illinois ought to be called quickly.
As for the rest, the polls are all over the map but generally close. If these states stay in the "too close to call" column for long, it may be a very long night to get anything resembling a final tally, but it does mean that the final delegate count will be close. If Obama gets fast calls from some of the Northeastern states, it's going to be a bad night for the Clinton campaign. Similarly, a series of quick calls on these states for Clinton could make for a long night for Obama.
I'd keep an eye on New Jersey and Missouri; if New Jersey isn't called early, Obama has made it close in Hillary's back yard; the NYC Metro suburbs will tell the story here. Obama should have wide margins in Newark and Camden. Big turnout in these areas would tend to favor Obama. In Missouri, look at the county results from the KC metro area (Jackson) and the St. Louis County results. If Obama is doing well, he'll probably carry the state. He should have a large margin in St. Louis City.
The results in Mass. should also be interesting as they will tell us whether the Kennedy and Kerry endorsements carried any weight for Obama in a state that was solidly for Clinton just a few weeks ago. There should be a ton of exit poll data for the talking heads to ponder. Don't forget that you can dig into the exit results yourself on the CNN website, which also provides county results.
8:30 PM Eastern, 5:30 PM Pacific: Polls close in Arkansas. This should fall for Hillary quickly.
9:00 PM Eastern, 6:00 PM Pacific: Polls close in New York, New Mexico and Minnesota. NY should go quickly in the Clinton column. If it doesn't, she's in deep trouble and Obama has succeeded in closing what is expected to be a large margin. Look for a clue to the Latino vote nationally in the NM results; it's the first state to close with a large Latino vote. The internals from the exits there (if they do them) should be illuminating. Minnesota is a caucus, so results there might take awhile. Minnesota is the first of the caucus states to wrap up and should provide a hint as to whether Obama's field operation has been able to deliver a win.
10:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Pacific: Polls close in 4 states: Utah, Arizona, Colorado and Kansas. Polls show Arizona close; as with NM, the Latino vote should be illuminating. The other 3 are states that have generally been considered as favorable for Obama. Colorado and Kansas are caucuses.
11:00 PM Eastern, 8:00 PM Pacific: Polls close in California. Despite tightening polls, I still expect Clinton to pull out the win here. A big margin for either would carry some huge bragging rights. More likely is that CA stays in the too close to call column for awhile. There is also the distinct possibility that the winner here won't be known until tomorrow; I've noted a number of stories that record turnout and the processing of absentees may delay the results. As early voters are believed to give Hillary an edge, look for a really large turnout to be a clue that perhaps Obama can close the gap.
12:00 Mid Eastern, 9:00 PM Pacific: Polls close in Idaho, and North Dakota. Since these are caucus states, these times are approximate and results may not be in all that quickly.
12:30 AM Eastern, 9:30 PM Pacific: Polls close in Alaska. Again, it's a caucus and the time is approximate.
Some general thoughts:
The story tonight will probably be driven for the most part by what happens in the states that close at 8 PM. Those states comprise nearly half the contests and should provide a broad outline of the evening's storyline. The big question is what analysts will use as a yardstick for measuring success. Will it be contests won or the delegate count? Or some combination? If Clinton sweeps through these states, the take may be that she "won" despite a final delegate count that is likely to be close. If Obama can score an upset or two there, with, say a win in New Jersey, it may be perceived that he won the evening. A good start to the night for Obama would be a win in Massachusetts and a win in either Connecticut or New Jersey with a decent showing in New York. Inroads like that in Clinton's backyard may be enough for the campaign to claim a win.
One thing I would note is that any delegate counts that come out tonight will be at best approximations and both campaigns will be spinning behind the scenes to put their own numbers in the best possible night. The at-large and PLEO numbers are straightforward to calculate with complete statewide results; the guesstimate will be in the district delegate numbers, which can only be determined definitively by using the actual congressional district totals (except in AS, ND and AK, which use single districts). We probably won't have any real solid delegate count until tomorrow at the earliest.