I don't know what the Obama campaign plans are for Texas now. But as a Texas resident who has supported Obama for over a year, I have been patient on Texas for a long time. I have made calls to Iowa, to New Hampshire, to South Carolina, to Georgia and to California. But now with only 27 days to go before the Texas primary on March 4, I am ready to focus on Texas--- no matter what happens to contests before then. I'm not saying everyone else should focus on Texas. I'm just saying that Texans should focus on Texas.
Here's what I think about the state.
- No conventional wisdom based on earlier state demographic reports should apply. I think the reason why Clinton did well among Latinos and Asians in California is because of Clinton's long-term effort at gaining endorsements and building organizational strength within these communities THERE. The Latino communities here are different-- George Bush did very well with them. But if the Obama campaign waits until the week before the March 4 primary, then we'll have a repeat of California for sure.
- The demographics are shifting in Texas. Districts that were solidly Democrat in in 1970 are now solidly Republican and the most gains for Democrats are now in formerly Republican districts in Dallas and Houston.
- Texas is technically a "closed" primary, but it's really an open primary. You choose your party affiliation at the time of voting. Now that a McCain victory in the Republican party is immanent, there will be a lot of opportunities for people to vote in the Democratic Party who normally wouldn't.
- Ron Paul will get a lot more independent votes than other places. This is his home base. Yes, the proportion of signs to real votes are high everywhere. But the effects are particularly high here.
- I am in Austin. Obama had his biggest rally in early 2007 in Austin. The potential to get huge rallies here should be great. But Texas is HUGE. And we need to get organizational support in many different places. Which brings up the biggest point.
- Texas requires a different kind of organization because of Texas' geography. Yes, California is a big state, too. But El Paso is a full day's drive from Houston (the equivalent of driving from Atlanta to New York). Organization will mean having a key organization in each of the major metropolitan areas (Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso) PLUS a separate organization in the valley (mainly Latinos). And there are pockets of Dems in the rural areas. We needed a lot longer than a month, but we certainly do need a month.
So I'm really pumped up about Texas. Obama supporters outside of Texas should all go to Louisiana right away--- we all missed Mardi Gras and a victory there would be sweet. But Obama supporters in Texas should be as pumped up about a Texas focus as I am.
Update1: I will add a gripe about DailyKos. My diary about voter registration in Texas got very few recommendations. If we care about elections, we can't just think about the day in front of us. We have to think about the whole picture. Just think what could have happened if more effort was made on registering voters in Texas, like they did in all of these earlier states.