Obama and Clinton will have a full week to criss-cross Wisconsin from 2/12 to 2/19. Tim Russert said this morning that Clinton would want this as her firewall. I'm just not sure that will happen. The two largest population bases are Milwaukee and Madison. Milwaukee has a very large African American population and Madison is a very progressive student population. Clinton would need to win whites handily, and women overwhelmingly. Here's my quick analysis.
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2004 Election Results
John F. Kerry (D) 1,488,935 50
George W. Bush * (R) 1,477,122 49
Russ D. Feingold * (D)1,632,562 55%
Tim Michels (R) 1,301,305 44%
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Key Counties:
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Dane (Madison)
John F. Kerry (D) 181,271 66%
George W. Bush * (R) 90,504 33%
88.96% White, 4.00% Black, 3.5% Latino
Well-educated
Projection:
Obama 51%
Clinton 46%
Whites 52-48 Obama, Blacks 80-20 Obama, Latino 60-40 Clinton
X-Factor: Tammy Baldwin for Hillary. Doyle for Obama. Huge student population
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Milwaukee
John F. Kerry (D) 298,426 62%
George W. Bush * (R) 180,324 37%
65.62% White, 24.59% Black, 8.77% Latino
Working-class
Projection:
Obama 53%
Clinton 46%
Whites 55-45 Clinton, Blacks 80-20 Obama, Latino 60-40 Clinton
Note: Yes, I think that Obama will win by more than that in Milwaukee, but this is a conservative estimate.
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Kenosha
John F. Kerry (D) 40,102 53%
George W. Bush * (R) 35,583 47%
88.38% White, 5% Black, 7% Latino
Chicago media market
Racine
George W. Bush * (R) 52,449 52%
John F. Kerry (D) 48,226 48%
83.04% White, 10.5% Black 8% Latino
Waukesha
George W. Bush * (R) 154,910 67%
John F. Kerry (D) 73,618 32%
Washington
George W. Bush * (R) 50,640 70%
John F. Kerry (D) 21,235 29%
Brown (Green Bay)
George W. Bush * (R) 67,113 55%
John F. Kerry (D) 54,889 45%
La Crosse
John F. Kerry (D) 33,157 53%
George W. Bush * (R) 28,286 46%
Rock
John F. Kerry (D) 46,598 58%
George W. Bush * (R) 33,055 41%
Winnebago
George W. Bush * (R) 46,538 53%
John F. Kerry (D) 40,937 46%
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Based on just a Dane/Milwaukee primary:
Obama - 52%
Clinton - 46%
This is using VERY conservative estimates for Obama and the AA turnout. If he can come close to 50% in the white vote statewide, he will be in fantastic position to win Wisconsin handily. The key is appealing to those voters that perplexingly voted for Bush AND Feingold in 2004. Wisconsin, as a whole, is a pragmatic state not interested to heavily in partisan rancor. There is a strong Republican base north and near west of Milwaukee, but the rest of the state actually has quite a number of rural democrats. I think Obama's message will play well.
If I were the Obama campaign, I would make an effort to not only have large rallies in the democratic strongholds like Milwaukee and Madison, but make stops in the Racine/Kenosha area and the Fox Cities (Appleton/Oshkosh/Green Bay). If Obama can pull areas like Appleton, he will win the state handily. A Feingold endorsement gives a lot of credibility among democrats in the state. That will be worth 1-2%.
The key here is the margin of victory with Wisconsin's place on the electoral calendar.