Demographics in Texas can be a nightmare for a national campaign. Texas has not been targeted in either general elections or in primary fights at the presidential level for many years. Usually, the presidential nominee is chosen by the time Texas’ primary in March comes around. Since Texas is a red state, Democrats usually stay away from here at the general election as well.
Since this may change this election year, I thought I would share my own thoughts about the way that both Obama and Hillary should approach the lone star state.
First, the Obama team would be wise to do the following:
First, it would be best to simply ignore South Texas from Brownsville through Corpus Christi. If in fact Hillary is enjoying such a high level of support among Latinos (or Hispanics as we say in Texas), Obama should start his campaign beginning in the northern and eastern tiers of San Antonio. East San Antonio has a higher concentration of African Americans. It would be wise to contact the Rev. Claude Black, who is a mentor to most San Antonio AA preachers and is an icon on the eastside. If Obama went to church on one of the major eastside churches, he would send a strong signal to the AA community.
Obama should basically write off both west and south San Antonio if the assumption that Hillary still has strong affinity among Hispanics.
Northwest San Antonio would be a goldmine for Obama. The fastest growing school district in Texas—Northside Independent School District—is located in Northwest SA, which contains more educated, younger residents. This area is tailor-made for BO.
Northeast San Antonio is another area to consider, but for independents and moderate Republicans.
I would not spend much time or money in Austin. I love Austin—but this is already Obama country. Sure—Barrack could command a rally of several thousand folks in Austin. But he would be wise to make this a lesser priority since these people are already with him anyway.
For what its worth, BO should spend resources in Houston, which has a large AA community, as well as east and west Texas, neither of which has a large minority population.
For Hillary:
Basically, the best move for Hillary is the opposite. President Clinton and former HUD Secretary Henry Cisneros should beat the bushes in South Texas to get the vote out. This should be complimented by aggressive ground game in west and south San Antonio.
Conclusion:
Although some pundits have said that HRC should be able to take Texas without a lot of difficulty, I would tend to disagree. If south Texas does not turn out heavily, Obama could take east and northwest San Antonio, Austin, west and east Texas, and play for a draw or even win Houston and Dallas.
Should be exciting.