Below the fold is an email I sent to my grad school classmates. For a bit more context, I'm studying Chinese Medicine in San Francisco at a school with a diverse but small, very progressive student body.
What follows may be redundant to most Kossacks. It probably isn't as insightful or policy-oriented as many here are accustomed to. I don't mean to add more noise to the candidate diaries. I just want to step back and look at the big picture a little bit.
One of our clinic faculty voted for the first time Tuesday. Across the country there are minor voting scandals about precincts not having enough ballots and having to stay open late to accommodate lines that stretch around the block. One of my favorite columnists for the New York Times, Paul Krugman, finds his nerves on edge because of how tight the Democratic primary is and how long it looks like its going to go. These are good problems to have. I love the talk of national politics at school, just listening to the back and forth once in a while, but more often participating.
I wanted to share some of my thoughts about what's happened so far and what happens going forward.
For complete results, the New York Times has a decent set of tables here. So far, over 17.8 million primary votes have been cast for Democrats vs over 12.3 million primary votes for Republicans. Because of the way caucus votes are reported, I can't say how the numbers compare in caucuses, but it's a safe bet to say there is a lot more energy with the Democrats. Even in states that have been traditionally Republican, Democrats are drawing more voters and excitement (South Carolina 530,322 vs 442,918, Georgia 1,029,654 vs 948,922, Oklahoma 401,656 vs 331,796) or at least running competitive (Alabama 533,521 vs 550,573). Even in Florida, which has been stripped of its delegates and the Democrats didn't campaign, it was 1,684,390 vs 1,920,250 for the Republicans.
In addition to those numbers, a significant portion of Republicans do not like their probable nominee, McCain. Democrats on the other hand would be happy with either Clinton or Obama. In the Democratic contest, pundits are observing the apparent divides between Clinton and Obama supporters. Personally, I think the impact of race and gender relative to Democratic voters being able to come together for the general election is being overplayed. (Sidenote - see Deadicated Marxist's diary on this today) Hillary energizes a segment of women voters nearly as much as Barack energizes new and disaffected voters. Either candidate will probably lose some of the other's core supporters, but the Democrats have two excellent candidates to choose from. Issues will dominate the fall campaign. On Iraq, the economy, health care, the environment, education, judicial appointments, and simple, basic governing competence, Americans are tired of Republican so-called leadership. So polls are showing McCain in a statistical tie with either Dem? That will change when the fall campaign turns to those issues and Republican vs Democratic solutions.
Having said all that, I want to focus more closely on developments in the Democratic race. In January, Obama outraised Hillary $32 million to $13.5 million, with Hillary loaning her campaign $5 million. It has been reported that some Clinton staffers are voluntarily going without pay. In a little over 24 hrs since polls closed Tuesday, Hillary has raised over $4 million. Obama has raised over $7 million. Yes, Hillary won big in California, New York, and Massachusetts, but Obama was still able to dramatically close the advantage she had as recently as two weeks ago. From Hillary being the frontrunner and presumed inevitable nominee, the race is now tied. In voting Tuesday, 0.4% separated the two candidates in terms of the popular primary vote. It will still be a while before the actual delegate counts are known, but estimates appear to put Obama slightly ahead in pledged delegates. Hillary leads when superdelegates are factored in, but superdelegates can change their minds. The primary calendar through February favors Obama according to several analyses I've seen and read so that he may erase her lead, even considering superdelegates, going into Texas and Ohio on March 4th.
Based on the results so far, either candidate can win in November. However, the Clintons are lightning rods for conservatives and even some Democrats. This makes it more likely that Hillary would be governing with a 50% +1 majority that would maintain the partisan polarization that's become so pronounced between two Clinton terms and the disaster of Bush's two terms. Even in the way she is campaigning in the primaries, Hillary is focusing or Democratic strongholds plus swing states like Missouri, Florida, Ohio, and Michigan. Obama,on the other hand, is delivering a message and building an organization with a strong potential to win even in previously red states. Without the Clinton baggage and considering the splintering of the conservative coalition that has allowed Bush to "govern" with only 30% popular support, Republicans might vote as liberal and moderate Republicans rather than in conservative lockstep.
Why does this matter now that California has cast its primary votes? So much has been going on that it's easy to get caught up in one small part of a story. To revel and gloat for your candidate when he or she wins, or to feel sadness and frustration when he or she comes up short. And of course the daily battle between Congress and to White House seems to constantly find new ways to depress and enrage progressives. I just want to point out that Bush and Cheney will soon be gone. It will be a new day. While I am supporting Obama, I know that in November we will elect a strong Democrat and a competent and effective progressive to be the next president.
I'm excited and energized by this contest. Perhaps I'm a bit strange in being a political junkie, but what fun is life if we can't embrace our eccentricities?
I'll leave you with some YouTube videos which I think are great no matter where you stand on the primaries.
Getting them to start young (warning - potential cuteness overload)
Go Obama
Two music videos based on a politician's speech. Great music. Great productions. Though these videos were made in support of Obama, look at the people in the videos, listen to what is being said. These are not just Obama supporters. They are the depth and breadth of America. They are the Democratic coalition. They are us. Hillary has used both the "Yes we can" and the "Fired up" memes in her own campaign. These videos are not about a cult of personality, they are about the energy and the passion in each of us to see and bring change to our country. This is the coalition that will win come November regardless of whose name is at the top of the ticket. Fair warning - I've read of people being moved to tears. I must admit I welled up once or twice myself, but I can be perhaps foolishly idealistic and sentimental...
Yes We Can
Fired Up
An eclectic montage of YouTube musical contributions
http://www.youtube.com/...
Peace and Love,
forbodyandmind
P.S. Mitt Romney has suspended his campaign for the Republican nomination today. I guess he wants to maintain some of his kids' inheritance.