The Democratic nomination will be settled when:
- Clinton or Obama withdraws.
- Clinton or Obama gains enough delegates to claim victory.
The first is not likely to happen before the second. When can one of them claim victory? It's likely Obama will win the pledged delegate count in the end (see here), but what about the possibility of reaching 2025 before that? (or possibly 2208) When would it be mathematically possible for one of them to claim victory? After PA? After NC? Not until after Montana? It's important to know since the contest is getting bitter and nobody really wants it to go to the convention.
In summary, the first point at which either one could even officially claim the needed number of delegates is Obama in NC. I frame my analysis as "Magic Numbers", which basically means the number of superdelegates needed to win outright. Supers will definitely decide this thing at this point. Here's the numbers...
Below is a table of running pledged delegate counts over the remaining 8 contest dates. Numbers were determined as follows.
- Pledged delegates: The starting number is from the Obama website. The projected running totals are estimates from the leaked Obama spreadsheet. These could change a little, but the spreadsheet has been very good so far, only missing by a few delegates. When it erred significantly, Obama always got more delegates than he expected. (From the accuracy of the spreadsheet, I'd say momentum has little to do in this race. It's more about state demographics.) In short, the projection estimates that Obama wins MS, Guam, IN, NC, OR, MT, SD, and Clinton wins PA, WV, KY, and PR. These numbers could change a little, but the delegate counts are likely within 5%.
- "Free" superdelegates. This is a count of how many non-add-on superdelegates that have endorsed each candidate. I took the current number from DemConWatch as of this morning: 242 to 205 Clinton to Obama (2 of Obama's are add-ons - see next bullet). The table assumes no more supers annouce an endorsement, and if they do it will reduce the "magic number".
- "Add-on" superdelegates. These are superdelegates yet to be selected, and can usually be expected to go with the winner of the state. See here for more details. The news media generally lumps these in with the "supers who haven't endorsed anyone", but this is inaccurate. The running total in the table assumes each candidate wins all those add-ons in states they win (an assumption with only a small margin of error), and also takes into account the date when the add-ons are selected (an add-on could not "vote" until they were selected). With this method, in the end Obama wins them 43-33, but the last ones are not appointed until June 28. See here for more details on dates.
- Total. This is the total of pledged delegates and both "free" and "add-on" superdelegates.
- Magic number. This is the number of additional delegates needed to reach the goal (2025 in the case of not counting MI&FL). It could be free superdelegates who haven't endorsed or other pledged delegates like Edwards or Uncommitted who pick a side.
These number are projections of course, so they have a margin of error. They don't count pledged delegate poaching or updates to state's numbers (e.g. California). But they give good approximations of what's likely to happen within 10-20 delegates or so, barring some unusual event.
Obama
|
Pledged |
Free Supers |
At large supers |
Total |
Magic number |
As Of Today |
1392 |
205 |
1 |
1598 |
427 |
Mar 11: MS |
1412 |
205 |
1 |
1618 |
407 |
Apr 22: PA |
1487 |
205 |
8 |
1700 |
325 |
May 3: Guam |
1489 |
205 |
12 |
1706 |
319 |
May 6: IN, NC |
1589 |
205 |
15 |
1809 |
216 |
May 13: WV |
1602 |
205 |
16 |
1823 |
202 |
May 20: KY, OR |
1653 |
205 |
18 |
1876 |
149 |
Jun 1: PR |
1678 |
205 |
25 |
1908 |
117 |
Jun 3: MT, SD |
1694 |
205 |
25 |
1924 |
101 |
All done |
1694 |
205 |
43 |
1942 |
83 |
Clinton
|
Pledged |
Free Supers |
At large supers |
Total |
Magic number |
As Of Today |
1236 |
242 |
2 |
1480 |
545 |
Mar 11: MS |
1249 |
242 |
2 |
1493 |
532 |
Apr 22: PA |
1332 |
242 |
7 |
1581 |
444 |
May 3: Guam |
1334 |
242 |
13 |
1589 |
436 |
May 6: IN, NC |
1421 |
242 |
13 |
1676 |
349 |
May 13: WV |
1436 |
242 |
17 |
1695 |
330 |
May 20: KY, OR |
1488 |
242 |
23 |
1753 |
272 |
Jun 1: PR |
1518 |
242 |
23 |
1783 |
242 |
Jun 3: MT, SD |
1531 |
242 |
23 |
1796 |
229 |
All done |
1531 |
242 |
38 |
1811 |
214 |
In this analysis, the number of available delegates beyond the ones in the table above is 269 (of the 343 "undeclared" supers on DemConWatch, 74 are add-ons, so 343-74=269). Edwards has 26. If a candidate were to get within 269 delegates of winning, the supers could make the candidate the winner. If a candidate were to get within 294 delegates and all the supers as well as an Edwards endorsement, he or she could be declared the winner. Ignoring Edwards for a minute, as long as a candidate's "Magic Number" from above is 269 or under, they could technically win. This is highlighted by the bold numbers in the Magic Number column.
Obama's number reaches this threshold in North Carolina/Indiana. The projected magic number after NC is 216, or 80% of the supers. If Edwards endorsed, he would only need 190, or 71% of the supers. This is the first point at which either candidate could actually reach 2025 with real votes. 80% is high, but as supers trickle in over the next few weeks, this percentage could get very realistic in a hurry.
Clinton does not reach a viable magic number until Puerto Rico, and even after all is said and done her magic number is 214, or 80% of the supers. As supers continue to trickle in, this percentage will likely grow. What happens if it reaches over 100%? If Obama gets 55 more supers (269-214), he could "block" her from the nomination without an Edwards endorsement. 55 could thus be considered Obama's Magic Number for the block, or perhaps it could be called the "Voodoo" number. 55 endorsements could happen soon if he gets 1-2 day like he has been. Clinton cannot block Obama according to these numbers.
Imagine this scenario... after NC Dean and/or Obama takes an anonymous straw poll of remaining supers. They are given the options of Obama/Clinton/Either/Abstain. If the Obama+Either option reaches 216 of the 269 (or whatever the magic number is that day), then they could inform the supers and Clinton and see if she'd be willing to withdraw. Again 216 out of 269 sounds like a lot, but this will shrink in the coming weeks (or probably in the time I'm writing this).
Florida and Michigan
If you count FL & MI as is (with no delegates for Obama in MI), then the threshold for a viable magic number becomes 358 (303 free supers + 55 uncommitted) and an Edwards endorsement becomes worth 39.
I didn't show the data, but both candidates reach viable magic numbers by West Virginia (Obama 318 and Clinton 335). In the end Obama's magic number becomes 207 and Clinton's 225. These are basically ties and within the margin of error of this analysis.
FL&MI probably won't count this way (without one candidate dropping out), so take it as you will. From this standpoint, I can see why Obama is balking at dealing with FL&MI since he basically has the contest won without them. I'd personally like to see them count in some way, out of principle.