Note: This subject was broached on Wednesday here. I thought I’d expound a bit.
The violence is spreading to Basra...
Since the fantastical assertion that ‘the surge is working’ has somehow morphed into a true, campaign and media-driven cliché – as a member of the reality-based community -- I felt it prudent to followup on my prior coverage (here) of this truly unique-to-America phenomenon.
Pssssst... the surge ain’t working.
Despite what the liar-in-chief; our derelict media, assorted congress critters, and McBush are all telling us, (or not telling us) violence has erupted all over southern Iraq, including the Wasit Province – the location of major metropolitan centers Kut and Basra – and the Ahdab Oil Fields.
While the much-touted Sunni Awakening has increasingly been ignoring al-Qaeda in Iraq, and has decided to attack Iraqi forces instead, Moqtada al-Sadr’s military leaders of his Mahdi Army have broken with the extension of a ceasefire reaffirmed last month, and are concentrating on driving police forces out of the major southern cities.
The latest round of violence began when Sadr insisted on his militias carrying arms in the city of Kut in order to defend themselves against interloping Sunni tribes and elements of the Islamic Virtue Party – an offshoot of Sadr’s party who no longer recognize the cleric as leader. This is the first significant breach of the latest six-month truce signed in late February between his followers and U.S. commanders.
The story’s at Azzaman.com:
So far the fighting has involved his militias and Iraqi forces. But the latest clashes in Kut prove that Iraqi troops are no match for Sadr’s heavily armed militia.
Police and security forces have fled the city and are reported to be regrouping for a counter attack.
Iraqi troops have asked for reinforcements but it is not clear whether U.S. occupation troops will interfere.
Eight people are reported to have been killed and scores wounded in the latest fighting.
More acts of violence were reported in Basra where one of Iraq’s top surgeons, Dr. Khalid al-Mayahi, was murdered in his clinic.
Needless to say, the roads are no longer safe for travel -- particularly at night. A recent crackdown involving more than 5,000 police officers has apparently failed to curb violence and lawlessness in Basra, the third largest city in Iraq with an estimated population of 2,600,000 (2003 fig.) The city has struggled to put into place emergency measures to restore stability.
The breakdown of the ceasefire comes at a very inopportune time for the Iraqi government who was counting on finalizing negotiations started in 2006 with China over a deal to develop the Ahdab Oil Field, which is located near the city of Kut. The Chinese were expected to invest more than a billion dollars into Iraq’s stressed oil infrastructure.
The latest fighting will certainly make China think twice before starting the development.
Even though I'm sure the Bush regime isn't all broken up about interrupting China's progress in developing the oil field, this is the worst thing that could happen to the very fragile social structure in the southern part of Iraq; an area where overall violence had decreased in recent months.
I don't know how long the Bush regime and their perceived heir apparent, Saint McCain, can continue to ignore the rising levels of violence in the south and talk up lie about success in Iraq, but it's becoming painfully clear that the violence isn't going away any time soon, and the vaunted "surge" ain't workin'.
Oh, and in case the Bush regime (or anyone else for that matter) is thinking about eliminating Moqtada al-Sadr from the equation, they had better think twice about it.
Iraq to ‘swim in lake of blood’ if Sadr killed:
"In the event Sadr is harmed, Iraqi will them swim in a lake of blood," warned Sheikh Sadeq al-Hasnawi.
Hasnawi is one of the top officials leading the movement in Sadr’s absence. He said the cleric was currently in Iran "studying and mediating" in the religious city of Qom which is the Iranian equivalent of Iraq’s holy city of Najaf where Shiite clerics are educated and trained.
Hasnawi made the remarks in response to unconfirmed reports that Sadr was poisoned and was being hospitalized in Tehran.
"These reports that Moqtada al-Sadr has been poisoned are merely rumors spread by those who would like to see him disappear from the arena by having him assassinated," said Hasnawi. Despite his close connection with the political and clerical establishment in Tehran, Sadr is projecting himself and his movement as an Arab nationalist group bent on the unification of the country, rejection of occupation and refusal of attempts to divide Iraq into federal states.
These positions have won him wide support among Iraqi nationals, particularly Arabs whether Sunni or Shiites. Hasnawi said Sadr’s popularity was at an all time high in the country and that clerics higher than him in rank and age follow his line as well as tribal leaders particularly in central Iraq.
Peace