I did some analysis this week on the issue of the popular vote breakdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in all kinds of states, to see if there is any validity to Hillary Clinton's arguments concerning the relative merits of Hillary v. Obama in the states that Democrats need to win in November.
I have divided the states up into two initial categories: Blue States (states that went for Kerry in 2004) and Red States (states that went for Bush in 2004). I then selected a set of Purple States, which were battleground states in 2004: Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Minnesota, Ohio, Missouri, and New Mexico.
For all these states, I used the popular vote count available on Real Clear Politics. Note - there HAVE BEEN NO RELEASED POPULAR VOTE COUNTS from Nevada, Iowa, Maine and Washington State, all of which are purple states. Given what we know about turnout, it's likely that these three states would probably net Obama additional popular vote (although I'm unclear on how much).
The results are that Senator Obama has won every category of state, Red, Blue and Purple. Analysis after the flip.
I have published my analysis here.
Note - I eliminated non-voting primaries or caucuses, such as American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, and Democrats abroad. Since they do not have electoral votes, I felt this was appropriate. This marginally hurt Senator Obama.
In Red States, Senator Obama has a popular vote advantage of 6,123,662 to 5,615,453, or 52.2% to 47.8%.
In Blue States, Senator Obama has a popular vote advantage of 7,140,001 to 6,953,778, or 50.7% to 49.3%.
In Purple States, Senator Obama has a popular vote advantage of
2,353,297 to 2,315,219, or 50.4% to 49.6% - his narrowest margin.
However, when the estimated turnout of the caucuses are applied to the end results of county/state delegates (only rough estimates, I know, but the best we can do), Obama increases his lead in all but the Red States. Factoring in the IA, NV, ME and WA caucuses, you get:
Red States: Obama 6,259,640 to 5,740,267, 52.2% to 47.8%
Blue States: Obama 7,336,325 to 7,050,132, 51.0% to 49.0%
Purple States: Obama 2,658,275 to 2,518,033, 51.35% to 48.65%
Anyway you slice it, he's ahead.
The remaining states are likely to change this mix only marginally, as the Obama spreadsheet shows them roughly splitting the delegates the rest of the way.