I'm hesitant to write this because of how pointless the PA polls are right now. For proof of this you only have to look at about every other poll a few weeks before a contest. But today I was reading a myDD featured post that pissed me off...
I've really only been to myDD a couple of times since this weekend (and not at all before that). I heard it was the stronghold of Hillary land, and with stories like this, I see why...
I felt that I must debunk it not only there, but here as well (and for truth and suck-up points, I must say that I do find the dialog and featured stories on this site to be more civilized and factually accurate than there, and the analysis is much better as well)...
...
The story is trying to claim a bump in Clinton's polling in PA due to recent newscycles. This is incorrect. The previous Quinnipac poll was taken nearly a month ago, in the middle of the Obama routs of February.
In the poll that has taken the most recent multiple surveys, Rasmussen, here are the results..
2/26 -
Clinton: 46
Obama: 42
3/5 -
Clinton: 52
Obama: 37
3/12 -
Clinton: 51
Obama: 38
So, in the poll with the most recent data points, Clinton did extremely well in the run-up to the TX/OH primaries, but has very slightly faded since then (as of Wednesday of last week). There isn't any polling that I see that shows PA trending for Clinton. When looking at other recent polls (these are the 4 most recent that I haven't talked about yet according to pollster.com), these numbers show a decrease in Hillary's lead:
Survey USA 3/8-10 - Clinton +19
Clinton: 55
Obama: 36
Susquehanna 3/5-10 - Clinton +14
Clinton: 45
Obama: 31
Strategic Vision 3/7-9 - Clinton +18
Clinton: 56
Obama: 38
ARG 3/7-8 - Clinton +11
Clinton: 52
Obama: 41
These polls average to a Clinton lead of 15.5. The new Quinnipac poll shows a Clinton lead of 12.
On the issue of the PPP poll, there is no way that it can show a bounce, as PPP has not polled PA before a couple of days ago. While it does show Hillary with a strong lead, it does not show a bounce for HER. Now, I know that the PPP was the poll taken most recently, but we shouldn't think that Clinton has a solid 26 point lead. It seems that, if anything, all the recent news has done is make people second guess Obama. They have moved from Obama to undecided (the PPP poll has 14% undecided) - not to Hillary. Hillary got 56% of the vote in that poll. There hasn't been a poll this month (save Susquehanna) that hasn't shown Hillary in the low to mid 50s.
Anyway, I'm just trying to give a little more information on these polls. It's a pretty big leap to look at the polling and claim a big bounch for Clinton. The data just doesn't show that, at least yet.