I've always enjoyed reading and listening to UVA's political guru Larry Sabato. He does exhaustive surveys; he's witty and urbane; and his analyses cut both sides of the political aisle. His latest newsletter "The Crapshoot of Presidential Politics" makes a few interesting points.
First he says HRC's "Big State" argument is a red-herring.
Any Democrat is going to carry CA, NY, NJ, and probably PA.
Sabato also says that Obama is not going to carry any southern states--with the possible exception of VA--that he won in the Democratic primary, nor will he carry any of the Midwest and Mountain states. Finally he opines that there's only two swings states in play, OH and CO. His reasoning? Barely 1/2 of the anticipated GE voters participate in the primary and caucus season.
As for how the Democratic nomination process will play out, Sabato summarizes the endgames made at here DailyKos. The one that caught my eye was
Superdelegates cutting individual deals that bear no relationship to the national picture.
Elected officials working for self interest? Who would have guessed :)
Although he acknowledges the enthusiasm of the Democratic primary voters, he downplays the positive effect this passion will have in November. While Sabato makes a cautious historical argument, I have to disagree. I think the passion shown will transfer into the 2008 GE and beyond. I agree with points made by other diarists that the extended Democratic primary will do more to build party unity than destroy it. People want to participate in meaningful elections. As we read here and other places, there's a sea of discontent in the USA. And participating in a democratic political process in the best form of voicing that discontent and working for change.
Thanks for reading and be gentle to this first-timer!