I have always considered myself to be an openminded and logical person. It was one of the main reasons why I rejected the idea of organized religion when I was a teenager. Someone standing over a pulpit shouting out that a man lived inside a whale for three days or that a burning bush began to talk or that a man lifted his hands and was allowed to split an entire sea in half or that two men turned wooden staffs into living, breathing (and apparently, hungry) snakes seemed more like science fiction to me than anything else. I have always been a person who sided with reason over sensation, facts over speculation. And as a professional poker player, being gullible comes at a price.
I am now a very religious person with a strong faith in Jesus, but these are the complexities that I bring to the following analysts of Barack Obama and his chances of winning in a general election. Many will not agree with me, and many more may very well take offense with my views. Even as a strong Obama supporter, I refuse to reject reason or logic. So, if anything, this diary is a plea for someone to use reason and logic to explain to me how I am wrong. I welcome such revelations, honestly)
There are three reasons why I am now beginning to believe Obama probably can't win in a general election against McCain. Those reasons are as follows:
REASON NUMBER 1: Democrats are, for lack of a better word, cowards. Democrats, though noble in the stance to remain strong advocates for the poor and disadvantaged in our society, are for the most part lacking in testicular fortitude. From liberals to so-called progressives, Democrats are defense minded and reaction oriented. They have allowed the Republicans to DEFINE what it means to be American and patriotic. Republicans only have to call a democratic candidate or position "un-American" and the Democratic party runs home, crying to Mommy that the big Republican bully took our lunch money. Democrats have become ballerinas in a full contact mixed-martial arts sport.
Obama, as elegant and intelligent and deserving as he is, will never be able to get the Democratic Party to grow balls. As soon as the Republican Attack Machine starts calling Obama unpatriotic and un-American and racists and everything else outside the N-Word, the Democratic Party--the so called leaders in the party and the yellow "seeming" party members--will start to whine and complain about attacks being "unfair." I trust Obama to be a man of integrity and a man of impeccable reason and judgment. But I have a fear that he is leading a party of cowards to face-off with the neighborhood bully. (Until democrats grab the dialogue back from republicans and DEMAND that we redefine what's American and patriotic--like zero tolerance for homeless vets, like making homeland security ACTUALLY SECURE, like ending the war in Iraq, and most importantly FINALLY GETTING OSAMA---then we will always be on the sidelines complaining about "fear tactics." On this point, as much as I hate the "bush-like" tactics of Clinton, one thing is for certain...the Clintons are not punks. They don’t need the Democratic Party to grow spines to win, Clinton will fight so dirty and so nasty and so evil that McCain won't stand a chance. (I wouldn't be surprised to learn a year year from now that the Clintons concocted a database of information on all her potential republican adversaries well before she ran for president, just so she could use it against whomever the republican nominee happened to be in 2008. The Clintons know how to fight monsters--become one.)
Obama is too noble, with too much principle, with TOO MUCH RESPECT FOR THE CONSTITUTION, to stoop to such a level. This means he will need the Democratic Party to grow a backbone. Frankly, I don't see that happening. Shawn Hannity and Bill O'Riley could single-handedly take down any of our democratic counterparts with their Jerry Springer-like news coverage.
REASON 2: Most Americans are, sorry to be blunt, just plain stupid. As much as I love my country, as much as I tell everyone that I wouldn’t rather live anywhere else in the world--and I have been to casinos on every part of the planet--the horrible reality is that we are not the "brightest" folks on the planet. Too many Americans are oversized 5th graders trapped inside a mental recess. We just don't like to think. I have read countless studies over the past few years regarding the "Dumb-ing Down" of Americans. (I tried to find a link to the study I read last year that showed over 40% of Americans think WWI was fought sometime between 1800-1900, but I couldn't find it with Google.) This may very well offend a lot of people (this usually offends the same people who can quote a long list of Harry Potter books, but can't name EVEN ONE Nobel Prize winning book) but the truth is inescapable: Americans are mentally...lazy.
This becomes a problem for Obama because his whole possibility requires a certain amount of "thinking." AVERAGE Americans have to be able to "think" about the problems we face in our society and abroad. But asking the same people who don't understand the complexities of race in America to understand that Al Qaeda In Iraq is not the same as the Osama's Al Qaeda that was behind 9/11 is like asking a random street dweller to explain evolution--it's something that should be common knowledge but isn't. (And just like evolution, people will give you twisted, distorted STRAWMAN answers, but nothing close to reality. Same thing with Iraq.)
Americans only care to think in short sound bites. "Smoke 'Em Out His (Fox)hole" or "Axis of Evil" are simple, 5th grade stuff that Americans can grasp without having to think too hard. Voting for and electing Obama for president in the face of the smear campaigns and attacks that will come from republicans requires a certain amount of clear thinking and logical reasoning and frank consideration that Americans have historically lacked. Hope may win Obama the nomination, but ignorance will cost him the general election.
To expect Americans to suddenly wake up and decide to finally use their brains is wistful thinking at best. Fear and ignorance works hand in hand. This is why race is a harmful factor in this election. Not because Obama is black, but because of our ignorance, we somehow think that race makes a big difference, even more so than policy positions. That is the level of our stupidity in America.
I don’t think America is smart enough to elect Obama over McCain. It's the choice many Americans face every day actually when they go to fast food joints. Every scientific study has proven that an obsessive diet of fast food is harmful to our health. But it's convenient and easy and doesn't interrupt our television time. Then we act surprised and offended and outraged when studies come out talking about how obese and overweight our children are nowadays. We are a great country, but a ridiculously dumb one.
Interestingly enough, Obama wins on this point over Clinton. Too many americans are dumb enough to think that being a female president is worst than being a black president.
AND REASON 3: The main stream media is blatantly lying to us. I don't know if it's because they have a political agenda or because they want to sell newspapers and boost ratings, but we are being lied to so often and so obviously that it's offensive. There is no sole source anymore for a "no-spin zone" in America, so many people are falling for the circus media outlets. Perfect case in point is the whole Rev. Wright situation.
Many Americans have seen the thirty second clips of the reverend Wright splashed over the news endlessly. And because Americans are not normally used to researching the truth (with a slight exception to the younger generation--who seem to understand that a quick search through Google can reveal more honesty than even CNN) they walked away thinking this man was filled with hate and all sorts of other things. But what Americans didn't get was an honest media that had the courage to SHOW THE VIDEOS IN CONTEXT.
When I first heard the clips, the first thing that came to my mind was this thought: "I wonder where I can get the whole speech." Less than a week later, I have finally had a chance to see the whole video, and I am absolutely ashamed of the media and the spineless Democrats who continue to let the right wing of the Republican Party push them around. ANY REASONABLE PERSON WHO WATCHES THE WHOLE VIDEO OF THE CLIPS CANNOT WALK AWAY CLAIMING THAT REV. WRIGHT IS HATEFUL OR ANTI-AMERICAN.
At one point in the video, a quote that Fox News clipped was actually Rev. Wright QUOTING SOMEONE ELSE!!! The media lied to us, and the Democratic Party, forever the cowards, balled up in a corner the moment the firestorm came. Just like the many years of this war in Iraq, the media has been a vehicle for spreading countless lies.
The media doesn’t INVESTIGATE the truth anymore. It's all sound bites and clips for an ignorant mass of people who can quickly list all the stars of American Idol and the basketball teams for March Madness, but who didn't know that close to 4000 troops have been killed in Iraq. But they certainly know whole lot about a certain NY governor and a sexy, young prostitute. I wonder which issue the media gives the most coverage.
The media purposely distorted the Rev. Wright comments in my humble opinion. I was playing a low stakes poker game with a few of my poker buddies last night when the conversation about Rev. Wright came up. Six of the nine players at the table claimed that Rev. Wright was a racist and were offended by the relationship Obama had with the man for 20 years. But a very interesting thing happened once I showed them all the whole video. Expressions like "Damn, man, I sorta agree with him now" and "I can see where he's coming from" and "This isn't what I thought he said," filled the room. These men had once thought Rev. Wright was a racist because of the media spin and the lack of a democratic spine to force the truth out. Now they were re-evaluating their positions and THINKING differently. Check out a video here.video here
The truth is the media has more power than they deserve. They have proven unworthy of their role as practitioners of truth. The media seems as petrified of the right wing Republican Party as the Democrats are. Obama can’t win in a general election that’s not based on facts. If the Republican Party is allowed to frame the discussion of the election, as they are always able to do lately, Obama has no chance against McCain. The mainstream media will reach into its tabloid playbook and start repeating smear tactics instead of refuting them. Who can forget CNN hosting a poll asking is Obama "patriotic" enough? Those are the sensationalized questions the republicans love to ask, and so long as those questions sell newspapers and boost ratings, news outlets will continue to regurgitate them.
None of this would work against Obama if Democrats had guts. The Republican Party proved their toughness when they unified to take on the New York Times on behalf of John McCain. The results were so impressive even I had to give the republicans props. They made the New York Times fold up like a wet and crumpled and devalued dollar bill. Democrats are still whimpering over the things Shawn Hannity and Bill O’Riley are saying. The Republicans didn't whine, they pulled out their baseball bats and jumped into a street fight with the New York Times . Now the Democrats are pouting and moping over Fox News? There is no way such a cowardly party can win in the general election.
Clinton wins here. She has been able to manipulate the media at every turn, even if it meant absolutely making up things or fabricating or inventing an imaginary "president test." I mean, seriously, a president test. You have gotta be joking. And the always-in-search-of-gossipy-headlines media ate it up. This was the moment when the spineless Democratic Party and the ignorant masses and untruthful media came together and had a threesome.
The whole "president test" was such a ridiculous argument that laughed, outloud—until I saw how often it was repeated by the media and how many "intelligent" people bought into it. If Clinton can spin a "president test" to the media, she can handle Shawn. And she won’t need the Democratic Party to grow a spine in order to do so. Clinton will fight dirty all on her own, gleefully. Obama, a statesman at the core, a man who holds integrity to mean something, won’t allow himself to fight in the mud with Republicans. The Democrats would have to do it for him. And I’m not sure we have the guts. Rev. Wright proves that in my eyes.
UPDATE: (I have helped organized over ten meetings so far meant to help educate people about Obama and his record. I have a host of contacts in the poker world and whenever I am in a different city and have the time, I seek out volunteers and offer my support in hosting poker get-togethers that allow representatives to speak to influential people on a local level. I support Obama whole-heartedly. But just as I said with religion, I am not gullible, nor will I ever abandon REASON and LOGIC for anyone. If anyone can explain to me how these three things I posted will not harm Obama in the general election, I am all ears. Trust me, I WANT TO BE CONVINCED. But I see the tendency of Democrats to hold their tail between their legs playing out now, even before the nomination. How is it not logical to assume we will do the same later, when the attacks are ten times worse?)