Ok, someone cheer me up. My natural pessimism and cynicism has been kicking in heavily the last few weeks. I was originally an Edwards supporter, reluctantly switched to Obama, but have become more and more enthusiastic about his campaign as it has progressed.
The thing is, I am no longer very optimistic about Obama's chances in the general. Now, I tend to be pessimistic anyways, so I hope I'm wrong, but here's what I'm thinking:
- Yes, we all know the match doesn't work for Clinton. Hell we've known for a month now. But it doesn't matter. She's not going to bow out, not even in June. I am convinced she will battle until the convention, until the superdelegates force her to back down by finally picking Obama.
Speaking of which, what the HELL is taking the superdelegates so long to end this? I am so tired of Democrats being wishy-washy about taking a stance. It’s obvious to everyone that Clinton can’t win, so stop being so afraid of attack from the Clintons and just publicly announce your support for Obama already.
Hell, I'm not convinced that would do it. A part me of thinks she would then sue the DNC over Florida and Michigan, tying up the process in the courts. And all the while she will be running a heavily negative campaign against Obama, driving down his favorables.
- I think the Wright issue is going to have a lasting effect. Back in January, Obama had a lot of support from independents and even Republicans, due to his appeal as a "post-racial" (which really only means he was polite enough not to talk about race) candidate and a moderate.
There was even talk that a lot of Republicans would vote for Obama in the fall, due to their unhappiness with McCain. Well, the Wright issue cost him some of that support, and I suspect a lot of those voters will never vote for Obama now. I think the speech was brilliant, but I don't think it's going to have any kind of impact on Republican leaning voters. The fact is, negative ads are very effective, and it's difficult to shake off their impact once the message has sunken in with easily persuaded voters.
I have a step-dad who almost always votes Republican, but seemed interested in Obama in January. Now he only wants to talk about Wright saying "God damn America", and isn't swayed by my pointing out the comments made by Hagee and other white ministers. There's no way he's voting for Obama now, and he'll probably have company. So by the time the fall rolls around, I think Obama will be "branded" as an extreme liberal with "un-American" surrogates.
- One of the real positives in this election was the huge fundraising advantage enjoyed by Democrats, with McCain practically broke until the convention. But you know what? That doesn't matter if Democrats can't focus their time and money on McCain. He's free to be "above the fray", while his favorables continue to inch up. Obama can’t spend his massive campaign money on defining McCain early in the process, as a candidate running on Bush’s third term without any ideas of his own. And of course we all know the heavy media bias McCain enjoys over Obama.
When I switched my support to Obama, I saw him as others did around here, as a "map-changer" who could potentially win in a rout. But now it looks like it will be a very close election, and when was the last time Democrats won a close election?
So please, someone tell me I'm being way too negative. Make me believe again. And I apologize for the lack of links. This was really just a rant.