The Presidential race rages on for the Dems, and is driving most of us crazy. However, we can all agree that whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee, strong performances in the House races will be key to electing them. The Democrats have the majority in the House and are likely to keep it. However, with so many freshman Democrats, the Republicans are aiming to get back some of what they lost in 2006. Still, the Republicans are the ones who likely will lose seats. Nearly 30 GOP seats are now open seats, and another GOP rep seems to retire every couple weeks. Far fewer Democratic seats are open.
Below is an overview of some key seats of contention in 2008. The Democrats have 30 seats that may be vulnerable, with 17 seats that are clearly vulnerable, while the Republicans appear to have 41 seats that may be vulnerable, with 22 that are clearly vulnerable.
Below the flip is a list of key races in 2008.
Highly Vulnerable Republicans (8)
Illinois 11 (Open Seat) – Weller managed a 10 point victory in 2006, but his retirement opens up this key swing district big time for the Democrats.
Michigan 07 (Walberg) – As a freshman Republican already having trouble with the press in his district, Walberg faces a much stronger and well-financed Democratic challenger in 2008.
New Jersey 03 (Open Seat) – While not the closest race in 2006, this remains a Democratic-leaning district. Saxton’s retirement provides a great opportunity for Democrat pick up.
New Jersey 07 (Open Seat) – Ferguson barely won re-election in 2006, and with his retirement, this seat is wide open for the Democrats to take it over.
New Mexico 01 (Open Seat) – With Heather Wilson running for Senate after a slim victory in 2006, the Democrats now have an even better shot at taking this swing district.
Ohio 15 (Open Seat) – Pryce eked out a 1,000 vote victory in 2006 in this district covering Columbus and its eastern suburbs. Her retirement leaves the GOP in hot water to defend this seat with Republican State Senator Steve Stivers facing Pryce’s 2006 challenger, Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy.
Ohio 16 (Open Seat) – Due to the retirement of Ralph Regula, this seat will be an open race for the first time in over three decades. Early signs indicate that this race is a strong pick-up opportunity for the Democrats. State Senator and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri will be the Democrat facing Republican State Senator Kirk Schuring.
Virginia 11 (Open Seat) – Tom Davis’ retirement opens the door for the Democratic takeover we have all been waiting for in Fairfax and throughout the DC suburbs that make up Virginia’s 11th district. Tim Kaine won big here in 2005, and Jim Webb won big here in 2006.
Vulnerable Republicans (14)
Alaska at large (Young) – Don Young has represented Alaska for a long time, and as such he appears to have been corrupted by it. He likely faces a strong primary challenge. That leaves an opening for Ethan Berkowitz, former leader of the Democrats in the Alaska legislature and from personal experience he is an all-around nice guy. Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich may run for Senate, but if he instead runs for Congress, he may also bring the Democrats a victory.
Arizona 01 (Open Seat) – Rick Renzi’s retirement opens up this seat, Arizona’s largest geographically, which hosted a worthwhile challenge by Ellen Simon in 2006 against the incumbent Republican. Renzi’s indictment makes it even tougher for the Republican candidate, who’ll have to distance himself or herself from Renzi. McCain will help GOP the candidate a lot, however.
Connecticut 04 (Shays) – Shays has threatened to retire if not given a ranking committee assignment. If he leaves, this Democratic-leaning seat could be an easy pick up. However, even if he stays, this seat cannot be ruled out because he has only won by two or three points in each of the last two elections.
Florida 13 (Buchanan) – Democrat Christine Jennings fought for months after this close race raised questions about accurate vote-counting. Will this coastal district in West Florida be as close this time?
Minnesota 03 (Open Seat) – With the retirement of popular GOP incumbent Jim Ramstad, this swing district in the Minneapolis suburbs becomes a potential pick up for the Democrats.
Nevada 03 (Porter) – Every two years this Southern Nevada district seems to have more Democrats move into town. Porter barely won last time, and has to convince a new round of voters that he is their best representative.
New York 25 (Open Seat) – This was a tight race in 2006 in this Democratic-leaning district, and with Walsh retiring at the end of his term it is likely to be tight in 2008 as well.
New York 26 (Open Seat) – Reynolds retirement offers a unique pick-up opportunity for the Democrats, who posed a strong challenge in 2006.
New York 29 (Kuhl) – Kuhl has had close races in the last two elections. There is no reason to expect anything different this time, even in the rural southwest corner of New York State.
North Carolina 08 (Hayes) – Hayes struggled to keep his seat east of Charlotte, winning by only a few hundred votes against a relatively unknown challenger in 2006, Larry Kissell, who plans to run again in 2008.
Ohio 01 (Chabot) – Chabot’s 6-point victory in 2006 shows that beating him will be tough in this district in Ohio’s southwestern corner, but he may face a much stronger challenger in minority whip of the Ohio state House, Steve Driehaus, if he runs.
Ohio 02 (Schmidt) – Schmidt might not make it out of the primary, but if she does, she will face another tough challenge in 2008. Where is Paul Hackett when we need him?
Pennsylvania 06 (Gerlach) – Gerlach pulled out tight victories the last two elections, and will have to face another tight contest this time.
Washington 08 (Reichert) – A tight race in 2006 is likely to be tight in 2008 in this Democratic-leaning district in suburban Seattle.
Slightly Vulnerable Republicans (19)
California 04 (Open Seat) – With an ongoing FBI investigation of he and his wife, John Doolittle retired, fearing a loss in this heavily Republican District in California’s Northeastern corner. Challenger Charlie Brown got close in 2006, and may still have a shot if the Republicans aren’t able to stray from Doolittle’s ethical issues.
Colorado 04 (Musgrave) – Musgrave pulled out a 3-point victory in 2006 and this seat remains up for grabs in a district covering Eastern Colorado and Fort Collins.
Florida 08 (Keller) – This seat was more competitive in 2006 than many expected, and despite being in Central Florida, has a Cook rating of R+3.
Florida 24 (Feeney) – As an ethically challenged Republican, he may be a target in 2008. He received 58% of the vote in 2006, in a race that was pretty much ignored in Florida’s eastern coast.
Idaho 01 (Sali) – Sali angered a lot of Republicans in his time in the Idaho legislature, but still won this seat by 5 points despite GOP defects in the State Party. Given his knack for saying the wrong thing, Sali could slip up and give the Democrats another shot.
Illinois 06 (Roskam) – Roskam has apparently scored points with constituents making this seat a difficult one for the Democrats. However, given his close victory last time, the Democrats still have a chance in the suburbs west of Chicago.
Illinois 10 (Kirk) – Moderate Republican Mark Kirk survived in this Democratic majority district in 2006 in suburban Chicago, but he remains vulnerable in 2008.
Kentucky 02 (Open Seat) – In 2006, this was expected to be a close race, but Congressman Ron Lewis was able to win by ten. He decided to retire before the filing deadline leaving this seat open, and a potential pick up for Democrats, who except to bring a strong challenger for this seat.
Michigan 09 (Knollenberg) – Knollenberg’s 6-point victory should be enough to convince Democrats to spend some real money in this district in 2008.
Michigan 11 (McCotter) – Despite a strong victory 11-point victory in 2006, McCotter remains a potential target. Not to give him advice, but Thaddeus would be wise not to call people "the devil" just because they disagree with his vote against SCHIPP.
Minnesota 06 (Bachmann) – Bachmann’s strong victory in 2006 may scare off some Democrats, but her far right conservatism may also scare off some voters.
Missouri 06 (Graves) – This seat in Missouri’s Northwest corner will present a unique pick-up opportunity with the Democrats running former Kansas City Mayor Kay Barnes.
Missouri 09 (Open Seat) – Another open seat has been created by Kenny Hulshof running for Governor, this district may have some potential with former Missouri Democratic House Speaker Steve Gaw in the race.
New Mexico 02 (Open Seat) – The Democrats didn’t mount much of an effort here in 2006, but with Pearce running for Senate against Heather Wilson, he adds another open GOP seat in New Mexico.
Nevada 02 (Heller) – Heller’s 6 point victory was strong, but it does not change the fact that growth in Northern Nevada will keep this a swing seat in 2008.
Ohio 14 (LaTourette) – LaTourette won with 58% of the vote in 2006 in this district covering Ohio’s northeastern corner, yet this is still a swing district for 2008. Cook rating is R+2.
Virginia 02 (Drake) – Despite losing in the polls with only a few weeks remaining until election day, Drake was able to keep her seat in southeastern Virginia by pulling out a decades old scandal on Democratic challenger Phil Kellam. Now the Democrats have a new candidate who may be formidable in former diplomat, Glenn Nye.
Virginia 10 (Wolf) – Despite a strong victory in 2006, Wolf faces a district in Northern Virginia that is trending more and more Democratic.
Wyoming at-large (Open Seat) – The Republicans are clearly better off without Barbara Cubin running, since she only won by 1,000 votes in 2006 in this very conservative state. However, Gary Trauner ran a strong campaign in 2006, and could still be a tough challenge for whoever the Republican is that runs for this seat.
Other Republican races to watch
Alabama 02 (Open), California 26 (Drier), Illinois 18 (Open Seat), Indiana 03 (Souder), Louisiana 06 (Open), Maryland 01 (Open), Minnesota 02 (Kline), Pennsylvania 03 (English), Pennsylvania 18 (Murphy), Virginia 05 (Goode)
Highly Vulnerable Democrats (9)
Alabama 05 (Open) – The retirement of Bud Cramer in this very "red" district is a strong pick up for the GOP.
Florida 16 (Mahoney) – This is probably the 2nd most vulnerable Democrat to Lampson given that he barely won last time, despite Mark Foley remaining on the ballot and his real challenger having little time to gain any ground.
Georgia 08 (Marshall) – Jim Marshall faced a tough contest in this conservative district in 2006. He will face an even tougher challenge in 2008.
Kansas 02 (Boyda) – Was Boyda’s victory in 2006 a fling for moderate-conservative voters, or will it be a lasting relationship? Jim Ryun appears to be up for a rematch. Too bad they aren’t competing in the Mile run.
New York 20 (Gillibrand) – In conversation with a reliable source in the summer of 2006, I was told that Sweeney was in real trouble. Few believed my source was accurate, but alas they were wrong. In 2008, however, Gillibrand will face some decent GOP opposition without the baggage of Sweeney.
Oregon 05 (Open Seat) – Darlene Hooley’s retirements opens up this seat for the Republicans. This seat covers the relatively-conservative state capital of Salem and Hooley won over 55% of the vote only once. Democrats will need a strong candidate to keep this seat.
Pennsylvania 10 (Carney) – Chris Carney doesn’t have the luxury of running against a man embroiled in a sex scandal involving choking. This seat in Pennsylvania’s northeastern corner is strong Republican-leaning.
Texas 22 (Lampson) – Lampson had a lot on his side in 2006 in Tom Delay’s old seat south of Houston. Now he faces a real challenge. This would be a great victory if the Democrats can somehow hang on here.
Wisconsin 08 (Kagen) – Kagen is a freshman Democrat in a Republican-leaning district in northeastern Wisconsin.
Vulnerable Democrats (8)
California 11 (McNerney) – Pombo’s defeat in 2006 appeared to be a great step for this district, but its conservative voters may still change their minds. McNerney’s best hope is that his strong clean energy stance will help validate him with the high costs of oil.
Georgia 12 (Barrow) – Barrow remains a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, who may have kept his seat only due to the Democratic wave.
Illinois 08 (Bean) – Melissa Bean survived a strong challenge in 2006 due to the Democratic wave, but she will have her work cut out for her to retain her seat again.
Indiana 09 (Hill) – former and current Congressman Baron Hill won back his seat in 2006, but it was the closest Democratic victory of the Indiana Three.
Kentucky 03 (Yarmuth) – Barring a primary loss, this will be a rematch with Anne Northrup, the former Congresswoman he defeated in 2006. Although he defeated her soundly in 2006, that doesn’t mean facing this well-known candidate is easy.
New Hampshire 01 (Shea-Porter) – Shea-Porter pulled off a surprising victory in 2006 against heavily favored Jeb Bradley. If he wins the primary, Bradley will likely challenge her again to get his seat back.
Ohio 18 (Space) – This conservative-leaning district east of Columbus was ripe for a GOP comeback against the fortunate freshman Democrat who rode the Bob Ney corruption/resignation wave to his seat in 2006. Yet the GOP has not apparently brought a strong challenger into the contest.
Pennsylvania 04 (Altmire) – As a freshman, Altmire is likely to face a tough challenge for re-election against former Congresswoman Melissa Hart, who he beat in 2006 in this swing district northwest of Pittsburgh.
Slightly Vulnerable Democrats (13)
Arizona 05 (Mitchell) – While his victory was strong in 2006, the GOP could still mount a strong candidate in 2008 against Mitchell, in what remains a swing district in the Phoenix suburbs.
Arizona 08 (Giffords) – While Giffords had a strong victory in 2006, immigration remains a key issue here that could keep her vulnerable in this border district in Southeast Arizona.
Illinois 14 (Foster) – Are you confused? Yes, this was former House Speaker, Dennis Hastert’s seat, which he retained in 2006. However, since Denny decided not to serve out his term, on Saturday March 8th he was replaced by Democrat Bill Foster, who won the special election 53-47 over Republican dairyman Jim Oberweis. This seat will remain slightly vulnerable for him as he enters Congress at a crazy time in this Republican-leaning seat.
Indiana 02 (Donnelly) – The GOP has not provided a strong challenge in this Republican-leaning northern Indiana district which includes South Bend.
Indiana 07 (Open Seat) – The victory of Andre Carson in the March special election may secure this seat for the Democrats in Indianapolis. The race was still relatively close, and shows a divide remains in the district, that could still leave this political newcomer vulnerable in November.
Kansas 03 (Moore) – While he didn’t face a tough challenge in 2006, he may have a tougher contest this time. He remains slightly vulnerable in a district Bush won by 12 in 2004.
Minnesota 01 (Walz) – Walz pulled out a surprising victory in 2006, but will likely face tough opposition
New Hampshire 02 (Hodes) – Freshman Democrat Paul Hodes may face a strong challenge for the seat he picked up in 2006.
New York 19 (Hall) – Perhaps catapulted by his appearance on the Colbert Report, Hall’s surprise victory in 2006 had many in the GOP scratching their heads. He may be able to skirt trouble in 2008 if the GOP can’t get it together to mount a decent challenge in this district.
New York 24 (Arcuri) – I hesitate to say this is vulnerable at all, but the GOP screwed up big time with their phone sex ad in 2006, and maybe if they learn from their mistake they may actually mount a challenge against the freshman incumbent.
North Carolina 11 (Shuler) – Shuler won a large victory in 2006, but still may face a strong challenge in 2008 in what remains a conservative district.
Pennsylvania 11 (Kanjorski) – While not competitive in the last few elections, the decision by Hazelton Mayor Lou Barletta to run for this seat may result in a close race.
Texas 23 (Rodriguez) – Democrats had to wait until December before Ciro Rodriguez could claim victory in this recently rearranged district in West Texas. He is likely to defend his seat, but remains somewhat vulnerable.
Other Democratic races to watch
Connecticut 02 (Courtney), Indiana 08 (Ellsworth), Iowa 03 (Boswell), Pennsylvania 07 (Sestak), Pennsylvania 08 (Murphy)
Key campaign resources
Cook Political Report
Politics1
Electoral Vote.com
Race Tracker