I keep hearing the boxing analogy used to describe the Obama/Clinton contest for the Democratic nomination. "She's going for a knockout punch," "Hillary keeps getting up off the mat," "He has her on the ropes," etc, etc. Below the fold, I flesh out all the details of this analogy so that hopefully it will never have to be used again...
The Primary Shapes Up
Despite having very little boxing experience (just a couple of lightweight fights in NY) Hillary Clinton is hailed as the overwhelming favorite. She is married to a former heavyweight champion and is using many of the same trainers/promoters/etc. There are several contenders, but it is clear that it will be someone going up against Clinton for the belt.
Weigh In
Early polls favor Clinton. She holds double digit leads over the other contenders. She is amassing a large degree of support from some of the judges (superdelegates).
Round 1: IA
Okay, I'm going to have to ignore Edwards in my boxing analogy, because clearly it does not fit. Sorry Edwards supporters. In round one, Obama proves that he belongs in the ring with Clinton. This is a largely technical round with Obama winning the round 10-9. It was a straight-up fairly fought round that Obama won.
Round 2: NH
This round belongs to Clinton. Perhaps Obama over-exerted himself in the first round, but he doesn't look as sharp as he did in round one. After the last round, this round looks like a stunner for Clinton, but she is not able to knock Obama down or hurt him. Her husband and former champion is now talking to the judges, trying to point out nonexistent flaws in Obama's technique. African Americans in the crowd see this and are appalled. I don't know how to work crying into a boxing analogy, so I'm not going to try. Clinton wins the round 10-9.
Round 3: NV, SC
The first half of this round is Nevada. Clinton is starting to work the official a little bit. She's getting away with some questionable punches, while accusing Obama of fighting dirty (the caucus sites issue). Clinton is looking good on the scorecards at the 1:30 mark (and looking like she's taking control of the fight), but then the second half of the round is SC. Obama lands a stunning right hook that sends Clinton to the mat. Her husband claims that black people have always had a better right hook than whites, but boxing is about more than right hooks. African Americans are angry. Even worse for Clinton, the right hook cut her. She's bleeding, and her African American support is oozing from the gash. She has lost a demographic she was relying on. Obama wins the round 10-8.
Round 4: Super Tuesday
This is Clinton's marquee round. Clinton has never gone beyond the fourth round, and all of her previous knockouts have come in the fourth. She lands her haymakers in NY and CA, but Obama lands consistent jabs and does not go down. He's also shown that he can jab at her cut at will. He ultimately wins the round. The fans, who initially supported Clinton overwhelmingly, are switching their allegience to Obama. The tide is turning for Obama.
Round 5: Feb 9, 10 - LA, NE, USVI, WA, ME
Obama, full of confidence from round four, now has victory in his sights. He knew he could win this if he could survive Hillary's round four. Now is the time he has been training for. He has the endurance to go the distance, and it shows. Hillary did not train for stamina, and is clearly not in shape to go beyond four rounds. Obama scores another knockdown in this round. The crowd is clearly behind Obama at the end of this round.
Round 6: Feb 12 - DC, VA, MD, Dems Abroad
Hillary goes to the mat twice in round 6. She continues to try to throw slow left hooks (racially charged comments) that Obama is countering with jabs at the cut. A better official (the media) would have called the match during this round. Clinton is taking serious shots and looking like an amateur compared to Obama. The health of her career is beginning to be at risk. The official has been told by the sanctioning body not to call the fight because they want to give the PPV viewers a good long fight.
Round 7: Feb 19 - WI, HI
Another knockdown for Obama. Hillary takes the round off to prepare for round 8 (she doesn't contest either state seriously). The shots to her head are starting to make her delusional. She doesn't understand how serious of a situation she is in.
Round 8: March 4 - TX, OH, RI, VT
Clinton finds a second wind. Obama has been punching himself out in the last three rounds to run up a dominating lead on the scorecards and wounding Clinton. Hillary knows that she needs to knock Obama down twice in this round to have a chance at catching up in score. Hillary is swinging every legal punch she knows, mixed in with illegal shots (fearmongering 3am ad, NAFTA lies) here and there. It takes everything Hillary has to win this round on the scorecards, 10-9. She was unable to land a punch that sent Obama to the mat, much less deliver anything that could hurt him.
Round 9: WY, MI
Obama comes back strong in round 9. He cancels out Clinton's points from round 8 in an uneventful round 9 that Hillary does not contest. At this point, Clinton needs a transfusion from all of the blood she's lost from the cut. The fans are calling for this to end.
Round 10: Media Warz
Hillary now realizes that there is no way that she can win this thing on the scorecards. She's looking for a knockout. She's throwing lowblows and headbunts left and right (Ferraro, Wright, African garb). She has nothing to lose from a DQ. She has landed a couple of cheap shots, but Obama has shown incredible resilience to bounce back unharmed and counter punching from even the most egregious of cheap shots. The official also refuses to disqualify Clinton. He knows his role - to lengthen the fight.
Where it will go from here, I'm not sure. My guess is that Hillary will take Round 11: PA, 10-9, and Obama will take NC, IN, OR with a knockdown in each. I have no idea where this will end. Hopefully the official will grow a pair and do what's right and end it. Or the judges will weigh in and end it. Otherwise, it's going to go to the score cards and Clinton is going to embarassingly lose by 25.
A few other boxing references:
Hillary is trying to get the results of two sparring matches added to the scorecards. She beat Obama in one of these sparring matches when he wasn't trying, and he phoned in and said he couldn't make it for the other one. Hillary is trying to get the judges go back and revise their scores for previous rounds (converting pledged delegates) based on how she may do in future rounds and polling. She's trying to claim jabs don't count. She's trying to claim only rounds that are multiples of four count. She's trying to claim that she was trained by all these great boxers, so she's clearly better despite video coming out of her "training sessions" that include her sitting around eating doritos with her trainers. She knows she can get away with whatever normally-DQing thing she does, so she's tryign to permanently hurt Obama so she can win a rematch.
So there. That's the boxing analogy. All spelled out. Add to it in the comments if you wish. Get it all out there. Then please, let's stop using this analogy, and cover the primary season like something other than a boxing match.