With Clinton expected to win Pennsylvania handily, it appeared that her campaign was already looking ahead to North Carolina, the next big state to hold a primary contest. However, with polls showing Obama opening up a huge lead in the Tarheel state, it appears that attention has shifted to Indiana.
Mrs. Clinton’s aides said they could see no circumstance in which she would withdraw unless she lost Pennsylvania on April 22. Two senior advisers and one close ally said they would urge her to quit the race if she lost Indiana two weeks later, on May 6.
It's obvious a Pennsylvania loss would end her campaign. But the chances of that happening are pretty slim. We'll know soon how she's currently doing in Pennsylvania. SUSA, the gold-standard pollster this cycle, set her baseline at 19 points a couple of weeks ago. It is currently in the field in PA and will announce new results either tomorrow or Wednesday. I'd expect a slightly smaller lead, maybe in the 12-15-point range.
I'm assuming she concedes North Carolina and declares the state irrelevant (her campaign already did, actually). If she retains that big lead in Pennsylvania, she can spend much of her meager financial resources on Indiana.
But if the race in PA tightens, then she's in a bind. The Keystone State is an expensive place to play, and Obama has all the money in the world to compete. She might be forced into putting everything she has into Pennsylvania just to hold on to a big victory everyone assumes should be automatically hers.
Meanwhile, Obama can continue to organize in the two next contests, working to run up the score in North Carolina while building toward what could very well be the knockout blow in Indiana.
Indiana is not Ohio. It may very well be the last truly competitive state left this primary season. If Obama wins it, perhaps Clinton will finally realize what we've all known since the end of February -- Clinton lost this campaign.