Okay, I was hoping that Obama would knocked Hillary out tonight. He did not. Wednesday and Thursday will be Hillary news cycles. She will seem warm and confident. So what.
I had this feeling before--after New Hampshire. But my best friend told me you can never lose hope. And he was right. This is about our hope--our belief in our candidate. I gave more money. I went to work on friends in California (where I live). Obama performed. He came back. In our hour of disappointment, let's us not forgot the following:
- His pledged delegate lead is probably not going to change at all (or very little) after Clinton's three wins. Repeat that to yourself a few times. He was and will be about 160 pledged delegates ahead.
- 370 pledged delegates just went off the table and there are only 611 pledged delegates left. Even Clinton camp concede they cannot make up the difference.
- The uncommitted superdelegates are going to break for Obama so long as (1) he holds a pledged delegate lead and (2) does not get caught in some sort of scandal. There are about 360 uncomitted superdelegates. I bet at least 300 would go to Obama if he has the pledged delegate lead.
- Obama is the much better candidate, but he is still learning. Great thing is he is faster learner. Look for him to learn what mistakes he made in these contests and adjust.
- Obama got more money and can get more money.
- The news cycle the next few days will be ugly. Hillary, Penn, Wolfson, Bill and other will proclaim that it is new day. But it is not. They are still 160 delegates behind and they will probably be 170 delegates behind after Wyoming and Mississippi.
- Either Florida and Michigan wont count; or there will be a revote or caucus. Look for Obama to fairly even split the delegates in both states in a revote. A caucus, well, I would love a caucus.
- Obama will be our nominee, but it depends on us as much as him. Call Wyoming and Mississippi.
- We can and will fight back and take this nomination. Our guy is skinny (really is--met him in 2004), but he does not lack for courage, grit and brains. Do not let any one tell you otherwise. And the same is true of his supporters.