Hillary Clinton silenced a growing number of critics who were calling for her to drop out of the race for the Democratic nomination for president by winning primaries Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island. But the pressing question is, what exactly did she get out of it all?
Going into these primaries as little as 3 weeks ago, the suggestion that Texas and Ohio were anything but in the win column for Clinton was preposterous. These were states that played to some of her core demographics: Latinos. Blue collar workers. Democratic aristocracy. The bigger story is that in the weeks following, they would even be in play at all. So again the question is. . .what does it really mean?
Well, what it means really depends on what’s important to you. If you’re looking at momentum, this is clearly a huge win for the Clinton camp. They stopped a 12 state win streak by Obama and did it in a pretty big way, picking up two of the larger prizes in the entire campaign. It would appear, on the surface, that the "firewall strategy" of Texas and Ohio for Hillary, at some level, worked.
Upon closer examination, however, I think it’s important to note that nobody gets points for the momentum they generate from one primary to the next. In fact, the only thing that counts at this point is delegates. Clinton certainly picked up a fair number as a result of the primaries last night. . .but so did Obama.
All indicators point to the fact that in spite of her wins this evening, it is possible that when the smoke has cleared and the dust has settled from the primaries, it is likely that at best, she will only pick up a net of 6 or 7 delegates for all the effort. What’s more, is the fact that there was also a caucus that took place in Texas, that at press time, Obama was leading by 8 points. . .a caucus that could end up being enough in awarded delegates to erase any Clinton gains from the 3-state victory she had just won.
And one has to also wonder, at what cost did she manage to have a big night in states won but a potential tie or worse yet, a loss in the all-important delegate count? Exit polling shows that nearly 53% of all voters say she was attacking Obama unfairly vs. 32 saying the same for him. She fought hard in order to give John McCain more ammunition to beat Obama over the head with in the general election. She showed that dirty pool gets all the balls into the pockets, but also tears the pool table up in the process.
Let’s be real for a minute. She mathematically can still win the nomination. She likely will not, short of changing the rules in mid-stream and somehow getting delegates from two non-contest states seated at the convention. In essence, she fought hard for a win whose price turns out to be an overall loss.
Sigh. . .on to the other states.
Crossposted at politicaldiner.com