Yes, Clinton went negative and it worked. But it doesn't mean that it will work for Obama. In fact, the opposite would be true.
We have to face it, the obstacle to be overcome is Obama's trust deficit in the minds of a large part of the electorate. They don't yet know him well enough to trust him. Hillary's negative campaign was successful only to the extent that people did not have a firm view yet of Obama. Those of us who did, thought the "kitchen sink" looked pretty tinny. Those who don't have a steady diet of cable news, election blogs, and political youtube clips, and don't read or watch the MSM news, are susceptible to smear tactics and mis-information. To know him is to love him, and they simply didn't know him.
If Obama goes negative, it does nothing to build his own positives. In fact, it would only give credence to the vast majority of cynics who never believed that, yes he can, conduct a campaign that has integrity.
A negative campaign at this point only helps McCain, and does nothing to answer the question in the voter's mind: can they trust the challenges of the next four years to this man who until a few months ago they didn't know at all--and who they've been told has only the gift of glowing speech, but no solid accomplishments to show he is ready for the task? That's why the red phone ad was successful.
The Ohio and Texas election results were actually a boon to the Obama campaign. Those of us who were avid supporters and volunteers in the Obama movement were so invigorated by our string of successes that we thought everyone knew what we knew about Obama. It just wasn't so. And its a good thing we understand what needs to be done from now on. That said, I do think it is within the acceptable zone to raise legitimate issues like the unreleased Clinton tax returns. But, again, the problem is really about taking this additional time to make Obama known to the working folks of this country in advance of the GE.
I think it was a big mistake to forego stadium-sized events. The more people that have a chance to actually hear and see one of Obama's full stump speeches, know (1) he is no lightweight, (2) he has solid solutions to serious problems, and (3) that if they personally get involved there is a real chance to take back the American political process.
Large events still only speak to those who are at least engaged to some degree in the political process. Many voters are so intellectually and emotionally removed from politics that they would likely not even be aware of an event in their city, nor willing to invest the hours of standing in line to see a candidate that it often takes to get into an Obama rally.
I did some volunteer phone banking for Obama in Ohio and I was surprised at how little was known about him, and how unwilling people were to have a conversation about him. Their minds were made up. If they didn't cut the call short, and actually told me what they thought about him, they were totally mis-informed, yet unwilling to even talk about it. Very frustrating.
So how do we reach this large sector of the population to introduce Obama to them? How can Obama establish his own narrative in their minds, so that they can withstand the negative onslaught of Hillary and McCain? At the risk of being a Johnny-one-note I want to argue again that there is a brilliant way to get Obama into the homes of the non-politically addicted where they take their own measure of the man, as he truly is, and not as he is spun by right-wing talk radio or the MSM news. They might not go to an election rally, or watch CNN or MSNBC, but they do pick up their mail. If there was an Obama DVD (think Netflix) in it, with his stump speech, bio video, and more, they might have the curiosity to pop it in and take a look. The menu could feature a tantalizing list of choices
Mass producing DVDs is probably no more expensive than the cost of printing color glossy mail pieces that often go, unread, right into the trash. It certainly couldn't hurt trying this as a strategy. Mailings are considered successful if only 5% of the recipients take a look. My guess is that more than that would pop it into the DVD player at their leisure sometime before voting. Just a hunch. But it certainly couldn't hurt, and it is thinking outside the box.