Let the General Election season begin.
No, I'm not so blind I can't see the decision which Senator will lead the Democrats into the White House has been postponed. Actually even a brokered convention is possible. But I refuse to believe this is necessarily a bad thing.
Many claim that the ongoing Democratic race will favour McCain. I think it actually is a huge problem for his camp:
The line of attack most promising to the Republicans will surely depend on which candidate is running for the Democrats. Against HRC, for example, McCain will play on her 'experience of failure' (e. g. her 1990's Health Care project), and he'll find lots of issues in her history to make her look unfavorable to independent voters. Against BHO he'll play on a presumed 'lack of experience', and a 'lack of patriotism', on Michelles's words and all that. Against Hillary he'll subliminally play on the anti-women prejudice; against Barack he'll play the race card. All this, of course, without any obvious insults of either race or gender.
The details can't be foreseen yet, but it is clear that the text books in use will have to be different. But McCain is uncertain which candidate he'll face: He can either concentrate the Republican resources on one of the candidates, making a bet, or else split forces and resources which makes his campaign less effective. He'll have to prepare for the endgame against both.
All the while, however, he'll be scrutinized by both BHO and HRC supporters, and he'll be attacked from all sides. His being 'torn between two haters, feeling like a fool' won't exactly strengthen his position in the Republican world, won't really soften those who 'always knew' he wasn't the right GOP candidate.
Then, after Denver, Democrats will reunite, and it will be too late for the GOP.
I think Old Veteran McCain very well knows this, though he'd never admit that he actually feels like caught between the lines.
An enduring contest, and even a brokered convention, doesn't necessarily weaken the Democratic cause in November. If some prerequsites are met, it might even turn out beneficiary:
- Neither candidate destroys the other's electability (no 'scorched earth' attacks - the Primary season is over)
- Democrats should compete, but not fight (or even dog-fight).
- HRC and BHO will have to sharply discuss issues, thus sharpening their own positions, but they should refrain from getting personal.
- Both candidates sharpen their criticism of John McCain, and when it comes to that, his VP hopeful. (*Let the General Election season begin.*)
They won't have to be too careful with each other, though. There'll be room for strong, but fair, attacks. The Boston Globe's Ellen Goodman rightly stated:
As for the notion that these two candidates will mortally wound each other and limp into the race against McCain? Does anyone doubt that Obama is a better candidate now than he was last fall? Quicker on his feet? Sharper at debating? Better at responses? As for Hillary, does anyone doubt her resilience? She lost 11 primaries in a row and came back. Knock her down, she pops up.
Nobody wants to see Democrats writing the attack script for Republicans. If you think these two have been rough on each other, remember 2004, when Swift-boating became a verb. This year will it be Monica-ing? Hussein-ing? Primaries are training grounds. And if Tuesday taught us anything, the voters are not through deciding.
The Reps have the more substantial problem. Again Ellen Goodman:
There are many things worse than an extended race between history or herstory. You could, for example, get a Rose Garden endorsement from George W. Bush.