This is Volume II of my thread for anyone who is trying to keep up with the Texas Democratic Party's halting attempts to publicize the results of the 8,224 precinct caucuses that were held on the evening of March 4. (Volume I is here.) Like (I suspect) many Kossacks, I'm maintaining my own spreadsheet tracking the results; this would be pretty exciting, if the trickle of information weren't so @#$@&# slow.
The quick upshot of the count at the moment is that it appears more or less inevitable that Obama will receive more than enough net delegates from the Texas caucus to overcome the slim delegate lead Clinton gained in the state's primary. Barring a stunning turnaround during the caucus-result-counting process, Obama has won Texas.
Update 2
A few new numbers: we're now at 41.10% of precincts reporting; Obama remains at 56.23% of the vote, keeping him on pace for nine net delegates out of the Texas caucuses.
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Update 1:
New information in--but not much of it, and not much change. With 41.01% of precincts reporting, Obama has 56.23% of the district delegates, which projects to nine net [national convention] pledged delegates in the Texas caucuses.
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The latest batch of new information (the first published in at least eighteen hours) has pushed Obama over the 55.97% threshold: with 40.81% of precincts reporting, Obama has collected 56.05% of the district delegates, which means he is now on pace to pick up nine net delegates in the Texas caucuses.
As the data has been coming in, Obama's percentage has been slooowly but steadily growing. If that trend reverses, though, slipping back into a seven-net-delegate finish is a real possibility: Obama would only need to do 0.14% worse in the remaining precincts than he has thus far to come out with seven net delegates. To jump from nine to eleven, in contrast, would require a 2.39% improvement over his current rate. That's reachable, though I think not likely.
For the total Texas primary + caucus results, there appears to be a conflict between the Obama campaign's numbers (which show Clinton picking up only two net delegates in the primary) and the preliminary totals from the Texas Secretary of State (which reflect a four-delegate win for her). Presumably that will be resolved in the coming days. If, as it appears, the caucus gives Obama seven or nine net delegates, we're looking at a total haul from Texas of somewhere between three and seven net delegates for Obama.
As to the information we're relying on: as Talking Points Memo notes here and here, there seems to be some reason to doubt whether the TDP's caucus results website will have much more information to give us. On the other hand, I've heard from Kossacks who helped organize for Texas caucuses that there is some kind of reporting requirement that comes due today or tomorrow. Anyone have authoritative information? Will the "precincts reporting" number ever get to 100%, or are we going to have to wait several weeks for the state convention? (Gaah.)