Hillary's supposed resurgence as of late is bringing back a lot of conversations about which Democrat has a better shot in November. Everyone is crunching numbers or pointing to what happened in Ohio 2000 or Florida 2004. The silly polls that show imaginary matchups get thrown around, as though they really predict anything.
It's all distraction from what is staring us in the face. The fact of the matter is that Barack Obama will mop the floor with dear old John McCain and he'll do it while trying to help the guy maintain his dignity. I believe that he has tried to do that for Hillary. She didn't want to go down that way. John McCain might not either. Just like with Hillary, Obama is going to win either way.
Right now Hillary and her followers are trying to point to specific states and say that those are the ones that matter. She should be the nominee because she won in Ohio and California and, incredibly, she points to Florida in this as well. The idea is, apparently, that she is more likely to win them in November because she won them among Democrats in the primaries.
On the surface this sounds logical, like a lot of the fallacies, er, arguments in support of giving Hillary the nomination. But it simply ignores the talents of the candidates and the different approaches they take.
We are supposed to ignore Obama's success in the red states because, she assures us helpfully, he won't win there in November against the GOP. But the fact is, there aren't many states where Obama hasn't drawn support that could indicate a genuine threat to the GOP in the fall.
One example is Colorado. I lived there for over a decade and I know that state is ready to swing. Both houses of the state legislature as well as the governorship just went Democratic. I felt, even back in 2000, that we could have delivered for Gore if he had paid us some attention and if Nader wasn't sucking the life force out of most of the activists on the front range. All that state needs is a candidate who will energize the electorate and CO will go blue. Obama drew great energy this year when he swept the caucuses. He absolutely puts Colorado in play.
My other two home states are Illinois and Iowa. My ancestral state of Illinois, I'm proud to say, didn't vote for W and we know it's a lock for Barack.
Iowa has been a genuine swinger in the past. But we're also totally in the tank for Obama. His campaign here was unbelievable. Ten months of seriously getting to know the state and connecting in every corner. McCain was barely moving the needle here. He faces a huge energy deficit against Obama in Iowa and we know how to get people to the polls. We will absolutely deliver Iowa for Obama.
Ok, so CO and IA could easily go Obama. That hurts McCain right there as those are two states that W carried. And the connections Obama has made in my states aren't isolated occurences. He drew 14,000 people to a speech in Boise Idaho. In the primaries. I mean c'mon. Who could have predicted any Democrat doing that? I can't think of many dead ones you could bring back who could pull that off and Obama did it in the primaries. He connected really big in Nebraska too.
Anyone following the campaign with open eyes can come up with other anecdotes about Obama's support in red states. It's no mistake. Part of why they come out for him is that people can sense that they do matter for a change. I'm speaking from experience here. It's the difference between the Democratic Party that tells Democrats in Idaho to de-activate because there's no hope anyway, and the guy who brought people to tears by saying there are no red states and blue states.
Don't ignore how the message of Obama's 2004 speech has carried through in his campaign. It's one thing to understand how that message made a Californian or a New Yorker feel. But if you're a serious Democrat, feeling like an island in your red state, that was gut-wrenching to hear. Hope indeed.
I'm not going to get deep into the Southern red states in this because it's a huge issue worthy of many articles in itself. I will say that I suspect the energy Obama brings out in the black community could provide opportunities in places where the GOP has long relied on keeping the turnout low.
So, I'll cut to the chase. Here it is, the forest and the trees. Obama will win in Ohio and Florida because of the red states. McCain is going to be busy trying to hold onto states that should be locks for him. Obama will beat him in what were serious battlegrounds in 2000 and '04 because he can make battlegrounds out of too many of McCain's bread and butter states.
Hillary is saying she can win in the states we have to win. But those are the only places she is very likely to win. That means we would once again be playing defense in a year that should be ours.
She might poll ahead of McCain by a little in some key states right now but because there are all these places that she isn't a threat to him, the GOP will be able to unload on her in states like Ohio just as they did to Kerry.
If Hillary did anything by winning Ohio in the primaries, it was to prove that you can get traction in Ohio by throwing fear into people. Between McCain and Hillary, who do you think has a better shot at winning that kind of battle in front of a fickle electorate? At least Obama provides an alternative instead of having to try to beat McCain at his own game.
Obama is likely to have McCain back on his heels in enough other places that he will have a better shot in Ohio. And because he's likely to pick off a bunch of states that don't matter according to Hillary, he would stand a better shot of winning even if a state like Ohio went GOP.
I know who the risky candidate is this year. We didn't beat Hillary in the ten month slog that was the Iowa caucus just to wind up being ignored again in the general election. We did it because Obama is going to make sure we have the tools to beat McCain in November.
We are one of the states that matter to Barack Obama. There are 50 of them.
Enough of Hillary and enough of Clinton leadership of the party. Let's get on with this. This really is the candidate and the campaign we have been waiting for.