I'm playing with the math today to get the view from March 9th. I have excluded pledged super delegates to be conservative and because recent history shows they're not solid anyway. Obama or Hillary would have to win by huge margins, without FL & MI., and that doesn't seem to be happening, except in the caucus states. And there are no more caucuses. (Don't know what Guam is since it's classified as 'other'..neither primary nor caucus.)
But, as it stands, Obama has 1328 pledged delegates, short 696; Hillary has 1190, short 834.
Excluding FL & MI, there are 729 pledged delegates left to win. Including FL & MI, there would be 1096.
Obama's campaign suggested splitting FL & MI 50/50. Obviously, Hillary doesn't agree. It seems impossible to imagine MI will stand as is since Obama's name wasn't on the ballot. Granted, Hillary seems to have her own version of Kathrine Harris in the 1-2 combo of Bill Nelson and Gov. Crist (yeah, the Reps really hope she is the nominee), but rules are rules and the Dems know they cannot afford to alienate all the voters Obama has brought into the election that might just sit out November if he is not treated fairly in these two states. So...
They will either be split 50/50 or somebody is going to end up picking up the ticket for a do over primary. There's strong talk of it being an all-mail in ballot in Florida, which would save some expense on a do over. Michigan still seems up in the air in terms of do over how to. Hillary won't go for less expensive caucuses. Obama won't just let Hillary get away with seating those states as is.
So, just for fun, if they do split FL-MI 50/50, that would add 183.5 to each candidate's delegate count. Now Obama needs 512.5 and Hillary needs 650.5 with 729 left to split in the remaining primaries. If that also went 50/50, then Obama ends up with 1876 to Hillary's 1738.
So she is really going to have to take 50% of each of the remaining primaries or win by huge margins in a couple of the larger states in order to not lose traction and especially in terms of swaying the superdelegates.
Assuming Obama doesn't start loosing by large margins, he's right. Math is on his side. It ain't sexy, but it will do. Unless something happens to sway momentum hugely in one direction or the other, how could this not involve the super delegates? I certainly don't see the super delegates pulling some coup on behalf of Hillary. She's going to need the numbers to warrant their 'judgment'. November is too important and Obama has pulled too many numbers into the process that previously sat at home...numbers the Dems have to have for the fall. So it's very hard to imagine them risking alienating those masses.
Seems it's still down to campaigning and organizing in the field. Hillary is getting a bit better at it as she goes along. She finally built a new website about 10 days ago, one that almost copies Obama's. Still, I looked at something the other day I found interesting...in terms of math. Obama has twice the number of supporters in just 10 groups as Hillary has in something like 315 groups.
And now that she is being chastised by some who matter (which excludes all voters), I'm guessing the negative campaigning that served her well in Texas and Ohio will remain toned down for a bit. Expect the monster to rear its ugly head again in Pennsylvania. In short, Hillary has the establishment and Obama has the grassroots organization there. So again...odds seem to be more or less even given Obama's ability to set new Dem standards at a grassroots level via participation. Does someone see an edge for either that I'm missing?
I do think the Obama campaign needs to hire a team of comedy writers to do skits in response to her attacks. I would highly recommend Darrell Hammond as anyone who does Bill that well could come in handy. That way he can hit back without betraying the core of his message. And whatever she uses to attack is, after all, a joke. And who doesn't need a smile about now?
And finally, here's some math that is surprisingly impossible to come by...an updated popular vote total. When I couldn't find it, using CNN totals I did it myself:
The Primary Popular Vote total of March 9th:
Obama: 14,051,496
Hillary: 13,276,391
Obama is winning the popular vote by 775,105
But of course, that's probably 3/4 million votes that came from states Hillary didn't win and therefore don't matter.