This is an off-the-cuff, on-the-fly, simultaneous kind of diary. So don't expect any mind blowing links to storehouses of online information. The basic information is this: President Bush is in Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, today to publicly support NATO Membership Action Plans for both Ukraine and Georgia.
This is controversial because Russia is opposed to granting MAPs (as they are called) to Ukraine and Georgia during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's Bucharest summit later this week.
Bush is being seen as 'stirring controversy' over backing the aspirations of Ukraine -- where public opinion is against NATO membership, and Georgia, which still has to deal with Russia-backed separatists in two provinces.
more on the flip
I would argue that Bush is supporting MAPs for Ukraine and Georgia for several reasons.
1) As a final goodbye kiss to President Putin's Russia, which the US accuses of supplying Iran with nuclear know how.
2) As encouragement to Ukraine and Georgia, knowing full well that Germany, France, The Netherlands, and Spain are fully against granting MAPs to Ukraine and Georgia -- therefore protecting the US' image among the elites in the region as a "good guy" and "strategic partner" even though the 26 members of NATO will not grant these two countries MAPs in the end.
3) Because, as too few people know, a MAP does not guarantee future NATO membership anyway, but instead provides a plan for reforms to get a candidate country ready to apply for membership. Think of it as being admitted to the US Ski Team. You have the possibility to compete at the Olympics, but there is no guarantee you will compete. Bush therefore looks gutsy, even though granting a MAP to Georgia is not actually that controversial.
4) Because relations with Greece and Turkey have never been that great, and it will be helpful to have a loyal partner so close to the Middle East.
5) Because Georgian membership would offer more secure Western European access to energy exporting countries like Turkmenistan, while sidestepping Kremlin Inc. intrigue.
I have to say while this post may seem cynical, I also would do what Bush is doing if in his shoes. I do not subscribe to Russian imperial 'sphere of influence' politics where we turn an eye to what goes on in Moldova because its Russia's basketcase, not "ours".
This is a false dichotomy, because what goes on in the CIS very much influences what goes on in the European Union. Environmental concerns in the CIS very quickly become environmental concerns in the EU; trafficking of drugs, prostitution, and other soft security threats in the CIS countries, like Ukraine and Georgia, spill over into the EU. The spheres, it seems, overlap.
The only way to solve these problems is through more intense cooperation with these countries, and it makes sense that if they wish, they be integrated with other Western institutions, like NATO. For a country like Georgia that cannot defend itself from its neighbors, a collective security agreement does make sense. And I know Georgians and I think that it would send a very terrible signal to them to write off their ambitions because Uncle Vladimir might get mad.
Georgia and Ukraine do badly need reform. But this also makes me question our institutions. Is the only path to reform through integration into a security apparatus like NATO, which is straining to meet commitments in Afghanistan? There are greater questions behind the questions being raised in Bucharest. This diary offers a place for comments so that we can discuss them.