As new Kentucky resident, I feel I should say something in light of the recent poll numbers:
Kentuckians have no idea who Barack Obama is, or why they should care. Yet.
Follow me for indicators of Kentucky's baseline...
items:
- There have been NO TV commercials, except perhaps spillover from the Cincinnati market in late February. Louisville may soon begin to benefit from spending in Indiana.
- Living in the bluest part of the state, I have seen a grand total of ONE(1) yard sign. It was an Obama sign, and has been up since last year in the window of an awesome downtown bar (Buster's, for you Lexy Kossians). Last week I saw two Obama bumper stickers. And then today, with Chelsea on campus to speak, there was a small eruption of Hillary hats and shirts. That is the sum total of all campaign memorabilia I've seen here.
- in a local used bookstore in this college town, I noticed they were out of "Dreams from my Father". I asked the owner if the book was selling well, and she responded enthusiastically. "Oh, he's so wonderful, I love him!" I asked if they were going to vote in the primary, and she got a blank look. "We don't have a primary, do we?" She then asked another customer in the store, and he said he didn't think we had a primary either. These are educated college-town frequenters of used book stores, people...
In short, everything is starting from zero here. It's not that Kentuckians don't know there's a race on, it's that they are barely aware that they're going to be asked their preference. In that context, why would they have thought seriously about their choices? The only place Kentuckians currently see Democratic primary news is on the national broadcasts, where it must seem only slightly more relevant than foreign elections.
Awareness of the election and the candidates is currently limited to wonks and the wonk-curious. This will begin to change quickly. Of course, I expect Obama to lose KY, but not by 30 points.