First-time diary, which I'm posting because I'm really surprised that I haven't seen anything regarding a new poll Gallup released yesterday which totally blew me away. Maybe this one got lost in all the enthusiasm about Obama's widened margin in the Gallup daily tracking poll (or maybe I just missed the relevant diaries), but I actually think that the implications of this other poll are much more powerful, given some of the arguments that are currently being put forward to superdelegates by the HRC campaign.
Here's the nutshell summary
The survey was conducted March 24-27, interviewing a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Gallup Panel members. Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59% say Obama does; 30% say Clinton. Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama on Election Day. Sixty-four percent say McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, compared with only 22% choosing Obama, meaning Republicans view Obama as the more formidable candidate.
For weeks the HRC campaign has been trying to make the case that she is a more electable candidate than Obama. But these results suggest that by overwhelming margins, Democrats and Republicans believe the opposite to be true. By a margin of 2 to 1, Democrats surveyed believe Obama to be a stronger candidate than Clinton against McCain. By an even stronger margin of nearly 3 to 1, Republicans believe the same thing.
Now I realize that surveys aren't 100% reliable, and that this one was taken right in the middle of the Bosnia thing, but nonetheless, these results are really something. To date, I've been pretty skeptical of all the calls for HRC to drop out of the race. But if you buy these Gallup findings at all, then you really have to ask yourself why in the world she should stay in -- regardless of the outcome of future primaries and caucuses.