When it comes to super-delegates, we have all heard the names of the 'known unknowns'. The most understated advantage Obama has going forward is that 76 unpledged delegates are chosen by their constituents after the primary or caucus is over. Twelve of them have already been named and another two will be named on Thursday for New Jersey. So far, Obama has picked up six add-ons, Clinton one and the other five, including three from Tennessee and Oklahoma, remain uncommitted.
There isn't much more to say or do about the votes that have already taken place, but it is not too late to influence the choice of add-ons in New Jersey and 39 other constituencies. More below the fold...
So far the news has been good for Obama. The only add-on to endorse Clinton, Mark Wilcox of Arkansas, is leaving the option to switch wide open.
“I voted for her in the (primary) election and support her and that’s how at this time I feel I’m going to vote. ... At this time, I’m supporting her,” Wilcox told The Associated Press.
“Who knows what the convention is going to be? We all could support somebody else if it changes, like if she pulls out, we’ll have to support somebody else,” Wilcox said, who added that he could not think of a scenario where he’d change his mind short of Clinton exiting the race.
---Arkansas Democrat Gazette
Oklahoma and Tennessee voted heavily in favor of Clinton, yet their add-on delegates are on the fence. Oklahoma Democratic Chairman Ivan Holmes was an Edwards supporter. He chose the state party's chief fundraiser, Reggie Whitten, who publicly refused to voice his preference, as his state's add-on delegate. His decision suggests that Oklahoma is not as solidly in Clinton's camp as the primary suggested.
"I had all kinds of people wanting to do this, and Reggie never asked me," Holmes said.
Holmes said he originally backed former Sen. John Edwards, believing he would do well in Oklahoma, perhaps providing coattails for local candidates. He said he has yet to see that trait in Obama or Clinton.
"Obama brings young people into the party that we haven't had before, and Hillary brings in a lot of independent women," Holmes said. "Unfortunately, the polls show that neither of them are going to win Oklahoma."
---AP
Perhaps the situation in Tennessee is similar. The State Executive Committee selected Jerry Lee and Vicki Harwell. Neither has made clear their intentions, though Harwell did present Obama an opportunity to pull her back from leaning to Clinton:
Harwell said after being elected that "at this point, I'm leaning toward Sen. Clinton." Harwell said she had met Clinton personally and found her to be a "dynamic, dedicated Democratic woman."
"I certainly think she has earned to right to run and certainly to be our nominee," she said, adding that she had not met Obama.
Harwell said she was unhappy with both candidates in one respect. Both have been invited to Knoxville on April 18-19 for a celebration of the 50th anniversary of the 3,000-member Tennessee Federation of Democratic Women and "much to my dismay, I have not even had the courtesy of a reply from either one."
---Knoxville News-Sentinel
The other two uncommited delegates are interesting cases.
Missouri's DSC chose a long-time Obama supporter, Susan Montee, and Attorney General Jay Nixon, whose neutrality probably stems from his campaign for Governor. I wouldn't expect a public endorsement from Nixon, but it goes without saying, Nixon is going to be instrumental in bringing the tribes back together before November.
The District of Columbia was so heavily in favor of Obama, it seems the campaign took it's eye off the ball. Rumors about him switching his support to Obama and a speech about poverty and change (and likely his own credentials), helped Ward 5 Councilmember Harry Thomas jr win a trip to Denver. Apparently, Yvette Alexander was one of seven candidates committed to Obama, while only one candidate was vocal about her support for Clinton. After the story broke, Thomas prudently left open the possibility that he will support Obama. He clearly is not what Mark Penn might call an "automatic delegate".
To take hold of the nomination, Obama and his supporters will need to be careful not to take anything for granted. The number of states he's won and the likelihood that larger states will split their add-on votes indicates he will continue to dominate the add-on selection process. To that end, I will track this finicky detail, lest it get overlooked because somewhere in Pennsylvania, a latte-sipping Prius-driver feels threatened by increasing demands for orange juice.
Thanks to the folks who've been tracking this at DCW. I'm using their information to track down news and links about the add-ons ahead and creating a spreadsheet that I hope will be ready by the time I return from Pennsylvania.
Some quick observations about the calendar:
In the next five weeks, there are a number of larger states choosing add-ons. There may be enough support for Clinton in those states to keep pace with Obama. A lot depends on how those who have a say choose to divide their delegation. Art Torres, chairman of the California Democratic Party, decided that the state's 5 add-ons should be split 3-2 in Clinton's favor. That means that California will be balanced out by Obama's add-on from Wyoming. My best guess is that in that time span, Obama will pick up between 14 and 17 delegates, while Clinton gains between 12 and 15. Since this chunk of states will be the subject of my next diary, let me be tease you with some reason for optimism about the add-ons beyond May 23rd.
After California, the calendar swings heavily in Obama's favor. Among the states that have already voted and have multiple add-ons, none were won outright by Clinton. She split in Texas and may win in Pennsylvania, and both of those states have three add-ons. That could mean a net gain of just two delegates. Georgia, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Virginia, Washington and North Carolina all have two add-ons. Should they decide to reflect their state's preference, those add-ons may split 2-0 for Obama. Even if they don't, Obama has a huge edge among states that only send one add-on to the convention. Hillary won Rhode Island and is optimistic about West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico; Obama has already won Wyoming, Hawaii, Maine, Mississippi, Vermont, Idaho, Iowa and Nebraska, and he should prevail in Montana, Oregon and South Dakota. My best guess for this group is that Obama comes out between 11 and 19 super-delegates ahead of Clinton.
Thursday is just around the bend so let's not neglect New Jersey. Here's a little something to consider in light of the confusion that helped Thomas win the election in DC. DCW posted a poorly sourced announcement about the likely add-ons in the Garden State, claiming that both would swing to Clinton despite the narrow margin of victory. I was surprised to discover that one of the add-ons, former Governor Brendan Burke, is listed as a member of 'Obama for America'. One way or the other, Obama supporters that show up to vote at the NJ democratic State Committee, should research their choices and not be misled by mixed signals.
I'll do my best to keep this diary updated, but I'm packing for Dubois, PA. Forgive me if I leave it up to you all to make sure this gets on the rec list.