Kerry's substantial lead over Bush in the latest California Field Poll (53-41) got me thinking about the 2004 Electoral College. In 2000 Gore beat Bush by 1.3 million votes in California. Even with Schwarzenegger in the Governor's Mansion, I expect that the Democratic nominee will beat Bush in California by an even larger margin this year.
Given Bush's skill as a political strategist (or Rove's) would Bush mind losing votes in other populous states--say New York and Illinois--in exchange for the magic 270 Electoral Votes? Surely not. His "win" in 2000 was amazing from a strategic point of view (it was amazing he even came close to winning). His campaign worked the electoral system to a tee.
It seems reasonable then to say they'll do this again. So imagine the perfect storm: Bush wins the Electoral College but gets trounced by, say, three million votes in the popular vote
and the Democrats retake the House and Senate.
This seems quite possible in light of Bush's support of the Federal Marriage Amendment. As several analysts have said, this shows that Bush is willing to eat his own to win: Bush's stance forces downticket Republican candidates to vote up or down and Republicans do much better when they can use code words in the culture wars (rather than having to state their positions directly). Since the infamous `92 Republican convention attitudes toward homosexuality have changed dramatically (for the better), and even then the move from code words to explicit intolerance hurt them badly.
So, if you take the premise (a) that Bush wouldn't do this if it hurt him electorally and (b) that this could shore up his support in enough red states to push him over 270 electoral votes, then don't the conclusions (c) that he might well lose by a much larger margin in the popular vote and (d) that this could swing things the Democrats way in Congress wither in `04 (or in the `06 midterms) follow?
And this is where things gets interesting. If Bush loses the popular vote dramatically and the Democrats end up with control of Congress, couldn't there be a huge backlash? And couldn't that backlash hit the Electoral College head on? I'd like to see the Electoral College and its divisive effects on our politics gone, and I can't think of another scenario that would make this possible.